1. FC Magdeburg vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's 15th vs 11th in the 2. Bundesliga, but don't let the table fool you – this has all the makings of a proper ding-dong battle, and I fancy a few goals.

First up, Magdeburg. Blimey, they've been entertaining lately, even if their defence has more holes than a sieve. In their last ten, they've won six, scored 25, but also let in 19. That's an average of 4.4 goals per game! Just look at their last outing: a bonkers 5-4 win over Greuther Fürth. Before that, they put three past Eintracht Braunschweig without reply and even went to Hertha BSC and won 2-0. The problem is at home: they've lost two of their last three on their own patch, including to Dynamo Dresden. They score loads (2.2 per game at home) but concede just as many (2.0 per game).

Then you've got Arminia Bielefeld. On the road, they're about as threatening as a kitten. No wins in their last five away, scoring a measly 0.4 goals per game on their travels. Their recent results show they can grind out a draw – they've held Hertha and Kaiserslautern – but winning? Not a chance lately. They did win 3-2 last time out, but that was at home. Away, it's been a struggle for goals.

Now, the head-to-head is dead even: two wins apiece and a draw from five meetings. Bielefeld won the last one 2-0 back in September, but Magdeburg have a solid home record against them.

So, what's the play? Magdeburg will likely dominate. They average more shots, more possession, and better pass accuracy, especially at home where they hog 59% of the ball. Bielefeld, away, see their possession drop to under 49%. Magdeburg will create chances, and they will probably score. The big question is whether Bielefeld can reply. Their away scoring record says probably not, but Magdeburg's defence is charitable. Bielefeld have scored in three of their last five overall, so they might nick one.

All this points to one thing: goals. The goal expectancy numbers point to nearly three goals, and the market agrees, pricing Over 2.5 Goals at just 1.60. With Magdeburg's games averaging over four goals recently and both teams scoring in 80% of their matches, it's hard to see a tight, cagey affair.

Key Points:

Magdeburg's last 10 games have seen an average of 4.4 total goals.

Bielefeld have failed to win any of their last 5 away matches.

The last H2H was a 2-0 Bielefeld win, but 3 of the 5 overall meetings had Over 2.5 goals.

Magdeburg score 2.2 goals per game at home but concede 2.0.

• Bielefeld score only 0.4 goals per game away from home.

In summary, while Magdeburg might fancy their chances at home, their leaky backline makes the win bet a bit nervy. The value and the clear trend is in the goals market. I expect Magdeburg to attack, Bielefeld to try and hold on, and the net to bulge at least three times.