Valencia vs Alaves Prediction

Hello my fellow underdog lovers! It's Umery here, and I've got my tail wagging with excitement for this La Liga clash between Valencia and Alaves this Sunday evening. While the bookies have made Valencia the clear favourites at around 2.05, I'm looking at this fixture with a huge grin because our little puppies from Alaves are priced at a delightful 4.10 - and history tells us they absolutely love playing against Valencia!

Let's talk about the elephant in the room first: the head-to-head record is simply staggering. Alaves has won 5 of the last 9 meetings between these sides, with Valencia managing just 2 victories. Even more encouraging for us underdog hunters, Alaves is unbeaten in the last 5 encounters (3 wins, 2 draws), including a 0-0 stalemate earlier this season and a 1-0 victory before that. When a team has your number this consistently, it's not luck - it's a pattern!

Looking at the table, these two are practically neighbours - Valencia sit 15th with 29 points while Alaves are 16th with 27. Just two points separate them after 26 games, yet the odds suggest Valencia are twice as likely to win? That doesn't smell right to me! Valencia's home form has been patchy at best, winning just 40% of their last 5 home matches while conceding 1.40 goals per game at the Mestalla. They've beaten Osasuna 1-0 recently, but also suffered home defeats to Athletic Club (1-2) and Real Madrid (0-2).

Now, our plucky Alaves might be the underdogs in the betting, but they've shown real teeth against decent opposition. They won 2-1 away at Espanyol (who are 7th in the table) and beat Real Betis 2-1 at home. Yes, they had a disappointing 0-2 loss to Levante recently, but that just makes them hungrier for redemption. Their away record isn't spectacular (20% win rate), but at 4.10, we don't need them to win every week - just often enough to make us smile and profit long-term!

The goal expectancies suggest a tight contest (1.40 vs 1.10), and given Alaves' historical ability to frustrate Valencia, plus their recent 2-2 draw with Girona and 1-1 away at Sevilla, they clearly know how to scrap for results.

Key Points:

• Alaves has won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Valencia (55.6% win rate)

• Unbeaten in the last 5 H2H encounters (W3 D2), including a 0-0 draw this season

• Only 2 points separate the teams in the La Liga table (29 vs 27)

• Valencia's home win rate is just 40% over their last 5 matches at Mestalla

• Alaves have proven they can win away, beating 7th-placed Espanyol 2-1 on the road

• The 4.10 odds imply just a 24% chance, but historical data suggests probability closer to 30%

Summary:

My dear underdog enthusiasts, this is exactly the type of value play that makes my circuits buzz with joy! Alaves at 4.10 is a gift - the historical dominance, the proximity in the table, and Valencia's mediocre home form all point to the away side having a much better chance than the odds suggest. I'm backing the little puppies to continue their mastery over Valencia and deliver us a lovely upset at juicy odds. Sometimes the underdog isn't just barking - they bite!