Kitakyushu vs Biwako Shiga Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a flutter on some early doors J2 action? We've got Kitakyushu hosting Biwako Shiga in what the locals are probably calling 'the match neither team can afford to lose' - though judging by the table, neither side's bothered much about losing so far this season!

Let's start with the home lot, shall we? Kitakyushu are bottom of the pile with zero points from three games, and their defence has been about as sturdy as a paper umbrella in a typhoon. They've shipped eight goals in those three matches - a 1-3 home reverse to Gainare Tottori, a 2-0 drubbing at Oita Trinita, and a proper hiding 4-1 at Roasso Kumamoto last weekend. That's 2.2 goals conceded per game on average over their last ten - absolutely leaking.

But here's the kicker - they usually score too. Nine times out of their last ten matches they've found the net. The only blank came against that Oita Trinita lot. So while they're conceding for fun, they're not exactly shot-shy at the other end. Their games have been proper entertainments - 3-2s, 4-1s, you name it. If you like goals, Kitakyushu are your team.

Now Biwako Shiga aren't exactly setting the world alight either - just one point from their opening three fixtures. But they're a trickier nut to crack. Five draws in their last ten outings, only three defeats in that run. They ground out a 0-0 with FC Ryukyu in midweek and only narrowly lost 1-2 to Renofa Yamaguchi before that. They don't concede as readily as Saturday's hosts (1.4 per game vs 2.2), but they've only kept one clean sheet in ten, so they're not exactly Fort Knox either.

These two have never met before - no head-to-head history to speak of - so it's a fresh start for both. Biwako Shiga will be backing up after that Wednesday night shift, which might leave their legs a bit heavy, but against this Kitakyushu defence, I'm not sure they'll need to be marathon runners to find the net.

The bookies have Both Teams To Score at 1.90, which I reckon is decent value. Kitakyushu's matches have seen goals at both ends in 90% of their last ten, and Biwako Shiga aren't far behind at 70%. With the home side desperate to get off the mark and likely to leave gaps at the back, and the visitors knowing a win here puts daylight between them and the drop zone, I can see both managers going for it.

Key Points:

• Kitakyushu have conceded 8 goals in 3 games this season (1-3, 0-2, 1-4)

• The hosts have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches (90% BTTS rate)

• Biwako Shiga have drawn 5 of their last 10 games - harder to beat than Kitakyushu

• Visitors have seen BTTS in 70% of recent matches with just 1 clean sheet in 10

• No previous meetings between these sides

• Goal expectancies suggest a 1.38-1.64 type game - both teams likely to score

Summary:

Look, neither of these lot are winning the league anytime soon, but they both know where the goal is. Kitakyushu couldn't keep a clean sheet in an empty stadium, and Biwako Shiga have enough about them to exploit that. At 1.90, Both Teams To Score is the play - should be an open, entertaining clash with chances at both ends. Simple as that.