Barry Town vs llanelli AFC Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Welsh Premier League clash. Barry Town, sitting pretty in 6th, welcome the league's bottom side llanelli AFC to their gaff. On paper, this is about as one-sided as it gets, and the recent history tells a story that'd make a llanelli fan reach for the strong stuff.

Barry have been having a tidy season, especially at home. They've won 75% of their last four on their own patch, scoring an average of 2.25 goals and, get this, they haven't conceded a single goal in any of those games. That's a proper fortress. Their last ten outings show six wins, two draws, and only two losses – and those defeats came against the league's second-placed side, GAP Connah's Quay, and a bit of a slip-up against Briton Ferry. They're scoring for fun lately, putting four past Gresford Athletic and Haverfordwest, and let's not forget the six they stuck past this very llanelli side back in November in the Welsh Cup.

Now, let's talk about the visitors. Llanelli are having a nightmare. Rock bottom with just eight points from 21 games, they've lost eight of their last ten. Away from home? It's even grimmer: lost all of their last four, scoring a paltry 0.5 goals per game while shipping 2.25. Their only recent win was a cup tie back in October. Since that 6-0 hiding from Barry, they've managed just one goal in three league games. They're struggling to hit a barn door and the back of the net is looking like a pinhead to them.

The head-to-head makes for brutal reading if you're wearing red. Barry are unbeaten in nine meetings, with six wins and three draws. They've scored 25 goals to llanelli's six. The last time they met, it finished Barry Town 6, llanelli 0. Enough said.

So, what's the bet? The home win is priced at a measly 1.20, which tells you everything about how the bookies see this. There's no fun in that. The value, for my money, lies in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is sitting at 1.45. Barry average over two goals a game at home, llanelli concede over two on the road. Barry's recent home games have seen plenty of goals – 4-0, 4-0, 6-0. Llanelli's away days are often goal-fests for the opposition – 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0. All signs point to Barry racking up a few here, and I can't see llanelli contributing much to the tally.

Key Points:

Barry Town are strong at home, winning 75% of their last four there without conceding.

Llanelli AFC are in dire form, losing eight of their last ten and all of their last four away.

The head-to-head is utterly one-sided: Barry are unbeaten in nine, winning the last meeting 6-0.

Barry average 2.25 goals per game at home; llanelli concede 2.25 per game on the road.

• Seven of llanelli's last ten matches have featured over 2.5 goals.

The Simple Verdict:

This has all the makings of a comfortable home win with a few goals. Llanelli look doomed at the moment, and Barry have the form and firepower to take full advantage. The smart money, for a bit of value and a bit of fun, is on there being at least three goals in this one. I'm backing Over 2.5 Goals.