Oldham vs Crawley Town Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint, because we've got a proper League Two clash coming up on Saturday afternoon. Oldham are hosting Crawley Town, and on paper, this looks like a chance for the Latics to bag three points against a side that's been struggling to find the back of the net.

Now, Oldham aren't exactly setting the world alight sitting 15th in the table, but they've shown some decent form lately. They went away to Gillingham last week and came back with a cracking 3-0 win, and before that they put Bristol Rovers to the sword 2-0 at home. That's seven goals in two games, mate. Sure, they had a couple of dodgy results against Swindon and Cambridge where they shipped three, but generally at home they're solid enough – averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceded.

Then you've got Crawley. Blimey, where do we start? They're down in 21st, just three points off the bottom, and their recent form makes for grim reading. Two wins in their last ten, and here's the kicker – they've only scored five goals in those ten games. Five! That's 0.5 per game, and away from home it's even worse at 0.2 per game. They drew 0-0 with MK Dons recently which shows they can dig in, but going forward they're about as threatening as a declawed kitten.

The head-to-head history is mental, by the way. Nine meetings between these two, and every single one has gone over 2.5 goals. Every single one! But with Crawley's current scoring drought – the numbers suggest only 0.7 goals expected for them here – I'm not sure we're seeing a goal-fest this time.

Key Points:

• Oldham have won four of their last ten, including impressive 3-0 and 2-0 victories against Gillingham and Bristol Rovers

• Crawley have scored just five goals in their last ten matches, with only 0.2 goals per game away from home

• Oldham sit 15th with 42 points, while Crawley are 21st with 28 points

• Despite historical high-scoring meetings (9/9 over 2.5 goals), current form suggests a tighter affair

• Crawley have kept four clean sheets in their last ten, showing they can frustrate teams

The Verdict:

The bookies have Oldham at 1.91 to win this, and I reckon that's decent value. Crawley are struggling for goals badly, and Oldham have enough about them at home to get the job done. I'm backing the home win – simple as that.