Blackpool vs Northampton Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One basement battle. Blackpool at home to Northampton – two sides level on 29 points, but only separated by goal difference. It's a proper six-pointer, and I fancy the Seasiders to come out on top.

Blackpool might be on a four-game losing streak, but hold your horses before you write 'em off. Who have they lost to? Barnsley (2-1), Ipswich in the cup (2-1), Bradford (1-2 at home), and a right pasting at Port Vale (5-1). Apart from that last one, they've been losing to decent sides. Before that wobble, they were flying: a 4-0 thumping of Rotherham, a 1-0 win over Doncaster, and a 2-0 away victory at Wigan. The key here is their home form. At Bloomfield Road, they've won three of their last five, scoring 2.4 goals per game and conceding just one. They know how to turn it on in front of their own fans.

Now, Northampton. Bless 'em, they're having a right mare on the road. Their last four away trips? Lost 2-0 at Huddersfield, got absolutely tonked 5-1 at Burton, lost 2-1 at Peterborough, and managed a 0-0 draw at Bolton. That's no wins, one draw, three defeats. They're scoring a measly 0.5 goals per game away and conceding a whopping 2.25. That's the sort of record that gives managers nightmares.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Blackpool have won five of the nine meetings, with Northampton winning three. The Cobblers actually nicked the reverse fixture 1-0 back in September. But at Bloomfield Road, Blackpool have won two, drawn one, and lost one. They'll be keen to set the record straight.

When you crunch the numbers, this screams home win. Blackpool are a different animal at home, while Northampton are like a lost puppy away. The bookies have Blackpool at 1.90, which I think is a bit generous. Based on the form, I'd have them shorter.

Key Points:

Blackpool's home form is strong: 60% win rate in last 5, scoring 2.4 goals per game.

Northampton's away form is dreadful: 0% win rate in last 4, scoring only 0.5 goals per game.

Blackpool have lost four on the bounce, but those defeats came against stronger opposition.

Northampton conceded five away at Burton recently, showing defensive fragility on the road.

• The head-to-head is fairly even, but Blackpool have a good record at home in this fixture.

Summary: Forget the recent losses, Blackpool are a good side at home and they're facing a team that can't buy a win on their travels. The value is with the Seasiders to get back to winning ways. I'm backing a HOME WIN.