Leicester vs Norwich Prediction

Blimey, what a difference a few months makes, eh? Leicester were supposed to be bouncing straight back up to the Premier League, but here they are languishing in 22nd spot and looking about as solid as a paper umbrella in a monsoon. Meanwhile, Norwich have found their shooting boots and are playing like a team possessed. Saturday lunchtime at the King Power? I reckon the Canaries are going to be pecking at some very soft cheese.

Let's have a look at the Foxes first, and it's not pretty viewing, mate. One win in their last ten games - that's relegation form with bells on. They've drawn four and lost five, but it's their home record that's got me scratching my nut. Three home games on the spin, three defeats, shipping 2.67 goals a game in the process. They lost to Charlton 2-0 and Oxford United 2-1 at home recently - teams down the bottom! Sure, they managed a 1-1 draw at Middlesbrough last time out, but Boro are flying high in second. Against the lesser lights, Leicester have been proper shocking.

Now flip it over to Norwich. Seven wins from their last ten - that's promotion form! They're banging in 2.3 goals a game and keeping it tight at the back with just 0.7 conceded per match. The away form is where it gets tasty: 75% win rate in their last four on the road, scoring 2.5 per game and conceding half a goal. They put five past West Brom away from home and three past Oxford. Even their defeat came against promotion-chasing Birmingham, and they bounced back from that with a 3-1 FA Cup win.

I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head says Leicester have won seven of the last nine against Norwich. But form is temporary, class is permanent, and right now Norwich have the form while Leicester have... well, they've got problems. The goal expectancies have this down as 0.92 for Leicester and 2.58 for Norwich - that's nearly a three-goal swing in favor of the visitors!

Key Points:

• Leicester have lost their last 3 home games, conceding 8 goals in the process (2.67 per game)

• Norwich have won 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored per game

• Leicester's last 10 games: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses (0.70 points per game)

• Norwich's away form: 75% win rate in last 4, scoring 2.5 goals per game away from home

• Leicester lost at home to relegation candidates Charlton (0-2) and Oxford United (1-2) in recent weeks

• The bookies are offering 2.80 for a Norwich win, which looks generous given the form gap

Summary: Leicester are in a proper rut, especially at home, while Norwich are the form team in the division right now. The 2.80 on an away win is massive value when you consider the Foxes are leaking goals to anyone with a pulse and the Canaries are putting three and four past teams for fun. Back the away win - sometimes you've just got to follow the form book and not the history books.