Bastia vs Grenoble Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 2 clash. Bastia are propping up the entire league, and it's not pretty. One win in sixteen games tells you everything you need to know. They're at home, but that's not much comfort – they've only scored an average of 0.5 goals a game in their recent home matches. That's the kind of stat that makes you want to weep into your pint.

Grenoble, on the other hand, are sitting comfortably in 11th. They've been a bit Jekyll and Hyde, mind you. At home they're draw specialists, but on the road they fancy a go – they've won 60% of their last five away games and are averaging a healthy 1.8 goals in those trips. They've had some decent results too, like that 3-2 win at Amiens and a 2-1 victory at Annecy in the cup. Sure, they lost 3-1 to Boulogne, which was a shocker, but overall, they're the side with more about them.

When we look at the head-to-head, it's usually a tight affair. The last five meetings have seen three finishes with under 2.5 goals, and the last time they met this season it finished 0-0. Bastia have historically had the edge at home, winning two of the four encounters, but this current Bastia side is a shadow of those teams.

Bastia's recent results show they're hard to beat, with draws against the likes of Saint Etienne (2-2) and RED Star (0-0), but they just can't find a win. Beating lower-league Pontivy GSI 1-0 in the cup is one thing, but losing 2-0 at home to Laval, who are just above them, is a real worry.

The bookies have Bastia as slight favourites at 2.10. I'm not having that. For me, that price is based on name and home advantage, not on the cold, hard facts of this season. Grenoble at 3.30 to win is a much more interesting proposition. It's a proper price for a side that's shown they can win on their travels against a team that's forgotten how to.

Key Points:

Bastia are bottom with just 8 points from 16 games.

Grenoble are mid-table and have won 60% of their last five away matches.

Bastia average only 0.5 goals per game in recent home fixtures.

The last meeting between these sides ended 0-0.

• The market odds heavily favour the struggling home side, creating potential value elsewhere.

In summary, this has all the makings of a classic Ligue 2 grind, but the value shout has to be with the visitors. Bastia are in a dire state, and Grenoble have the tools to take advantage. I'm backing the away win at a very nice price.