Preview
The Big "O"Fortaleza EC host CRB on 12 October in Serie B, and The Big O is here to tell you why this one has the ingredients to deliver the goods.
The case for goals starts with CRB's recent form. Over their last 10 matches, CRB have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 games. In their last five, four of five have crossed the line — a 3–1 win over Atletico Goianiense, a 3–0 demolition of Cuiaba, a 2–1 victory over Sport Recife, and even a 1–3 loss to São Bernardo all delivered three or more goals. CRB are in a high-scoring phase, and that is music to my ears. Life's too short for nil-nil, and CRB seem to agree.
Fortaleza EC's home record at this ground backs the over. Across 20 home games, 11 of 20 have finished with over 2.5 goals. Their home scoring average is 1.7 goals per game, and they concede 1.05 per game. CRB's away record across 20 games shows 10 of 20 over 2.5, with an away scoring average of 0.85 and a conceded average of 1.6. When you stack those numbers together, the expected total sits right around 2.5 to 2.6 goals — and that is before you factor in CRB's current scoring surge.
The head-to-head at this venue adds a little spice. The only recent meeting at Fortaleza EC's ground (22 April, Copa Do Brasil) finished 2–1. The other two recent meetings at CRB's ground were low-scoring — a 1–1 and a 0–0 — but those are at the reverse venue and do not tell us much about what happens here.
Now, the counter-argument, and I will be honest: Fortaleza EC's recent form is a bit of a damp squib for the over. In their last 10 matches, only 2 of 10 have gone over 2.5. Their last three home games produced scores of 1–1, 2–2, and 1–1 — two of those three were under 2.5. The 2–2 draw with Athletic Club was the only one to clear the bar. If Fortaleza keep grinding out low-scoring draws at home, this one could end up a 1–1 or 0–0, which is exactly the kind of night I would rather skip.
But here is the thing: CRB are not the same team they were in those 0–0 and 1–1 meetings. They are scoring at a clip right now, and their away record shows they concede 1.6 per game. Fortaleza score 1.7 at home. The xG data from both teams' recent matches (3 games each) shows Fortaleza generating 2.0 xG per game and CRB generating 1.9, while both are conceding a reasonable amount. The ingredients for goals are there, and I am feeling the O in this one.
Key Points:
- CRB have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches
- Fortaleza EC's home record: 11 of 20 games over 2.5 goals
- CRB's away record: 10 of 20 games over 2.5 goals
- Fortaleza EC's last 10 matches: only 2 over 2.5 — the main risk
- Recent H2H at this venue: 2–1 (over 2.5)
The Big O's verdict: over 2.5 goals.