Preview
PajimonHowzit my chinas! Grab a cold one and fire up the braai because we've got a lekker derby coming up on Wednesday night. Bahia hosting Vitoria in Serie A, and if you're looking for a solid winner to fund your weekend boerewors, I've got just the ticket.
Bahia are sitting pretty in 4th spot with 7 points from their opening three matches - two wins and a draw, unbeaten start to the campaign. They just beat these same Vitoria boys 2-1 on Saturday in the Baiano league, so they know exactly how to unlock this defence. That recent victory made it five wins in their last ten across all competitions, with only one defeat in that run. They've been proper sharp in front of goal too, putting four past Juazeirense and two past O'Higgins (who are no slouches with 2.10 points per game). At home, they're unbeaten with a 50% win rate and 50% draw rate, scoring 1.83 goals per game.
Vitoria, on the other hand, are struggling down in 15th place with just three points from three games. Their away form is kak - only one win in their last five on the road, conceding 1.80 goals per game when they travel. They took a proper hiding from Palmeiras (5-1) recently and while they managed a draw against Botafogo, their trends are pointing downwards with declining goals and points over the last ten matches.
The head-to-head is dominated by Bahia at home - 80% win rate in this fixture on their own patch. They've won four and drawn one of the last five home meetings against Vitoria. The recent 2-1 victory just four days ago shows they're in the heads of these opponents and have the tactical measure of them.
Statistically, Bahia are averaging 15.5 shots at home with 55.5% possession, while Vitoria manage only 9 shots away with just 40% possession. That's dominance written all over it, china. The goal expectancy models have Bahia at 1.82 expected goals versus Vitoria's 1.18, suggesting a comfortable home win is on the cards.
Key Points:
• Bahia beat Vitoria 2-1 just four days ago in the Baiano league
• Bahia unbeaten at home this season (50% win rate, 50% draw rate)
• Vitoria struggling away from home with only 20% win rate and 1.80 goals conceded per game
• Bahia sit 4th in Serie A (7 points), Vitoria languish in 15th (3 points)
• Head-to-head at Bahia's home: 80% win rate for the hosts
• Bahia averaging 15.5 shots per game at home vs Vitoria's 9 away
Summary:
This is a no-brainer for me, bra. Bahia are the form team, they just beat this same opposition four days back, and they're playing at home where they're absolutely dominant. At 1.73, there's serious value here - I'm estimating a 62% chance of the home win which gives us a nice edge over the bookies. Vitoria's away form is softer than a vegetarian at a braai, and Bahia are hungry for three points to keep pace with Palmeiras and Sao Paulo at the top. Put your money on the home side and let's watch them braai these boys!
