AS Roma vs Como Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's a proper top-six clash in Serie A, with AS Roma sitting 4th and Como just three points behind in 6th. This ain't no foregone conclusion, I can tell you that.

Roma's form is a bit of a mixed bag. They've won seven of their last ten, which sounds brilliant, but they've also lost three. The worrying ones are the 0-1 defeat at home to Napoli – fair enough, they're flying – and the 0-1 loss away to AC Milan, who are top of the league. But the real stinker was that 1-0 loss to Cagliari last weekend. Cagliari are down in 13th and have been proper rubbish lately, so that's a bad one to take. On the bright side, they just smashed Celtic 3-0 in Europe, so the confidence might be back. At home, they've won three of their last four, but they only scored more than two goals once in that run.

Now, Como are a different kettle of fish. They've only lost once in their last ten matches, and that was a 4-0 hiding away to Inter. But look at the rest of their results: a 0-0 draw at Napoli, a 2-0 home win over Juventus, and a 5-1 demolition of Torino on the road. This lot don't know when they're beaten. Away from home, they've drawn three of their last five, including at Napoli and Atalanta. They're organised, they're tough to break down, and they've had nine days' rest compared to Roma's four. That's a big advantage.

When these two met last season at Roma's gaff, it finished 2-1 to the hosts. But that's the only time they've played there recently.

So, what's the play? Roma are the favourites at 2.15, and on paper they should win at home. But Como are no mugs. They keep things tight, especially on the road where they've only conceded more than once in one of their last five trips (that Inter game). Roma, for all their quality, have only been scoring 1.5 goals a game on average. I can see this being a cagey, tactical affair. Both managers will know a point isn't a disaster.

Key Points:

Roma's Form: Strong overall (7 wins in 10) but with a shock loss to lowly Cagliari.

Como's Resilience: One loss in ten, with impressive draws/ wins against Napoli, Juventus, and Atalanta.

Fatigue Factor: Roma have 4 days rest after European action; Como have had 9 days off.

Defensive Solidity: Both teams boast good defensive records (Roma 0.6 goals conceded per game, Como 0.8).

• Head-to-Head: Roma won the last home meeting 2-1.

All things considered, I fancy this to be a low-scorer. The value, for me, is in Under 2.5 Goals. The odds of 1.67 look about right for a game where I reckon both sides will be cautious. Don't expect a goal-fest.