Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga clash. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch. Borussia Dortmund are sitting pretty in second, just eight points off the top with only one loss all season. Werder Bremen? They're down in 12th, scrapping for points and sporting a goal difference of minus ten. That tells you most of the story before we even start.

Dortmund's form is interesting. They've only lost once in their last ten, but they've drawn five of them. Now, some might see that as a weakness, but look at who they drew with: 3-3 with a decent Frankfurt side, 1-1 away at Freiburg, and that mad 3-3 with Stuttgart. They're not losing to the lesser lights; they're getting into proper scraps with good teams and coming out with a point. More importantly, they're scoring for fun – 20 goals in those ten games. At home, they're even better, banging in over two goals a game on average. Recent home wins include a 2-0 against Gladbach and a 4-0 thumping of Villarreal in Europe. They know how to turn it on in front of their own fans.

Werder Bremen, on the other hand, are having a proper struggle in front of goal. Seven goals in ten matches? That's less than one a game. Away from home it's even grimmer: no wins in their last five on the road, and they've only managed to score 0.6 goals per game in those. Their recent away days make for grim reading: a 0-0 at Augsburg, a 4-0 hiding at Stuttgart, and a 3-2 loss at Hamburg. They're not getting tonked every week, but they're just not creating enough to win.

The head-to-head record screams Dortmund dominance. Six wins, two draws, and just one loss in the last nine meetings. Yes, the last one was a 2-2 draw, but generally, this fixture has been yellow and black.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Dortmund at a skinny 1.36 to win. Is there value? Let's be honest, Bremen's attack looks blunt. They average fewer shots, fewer shots on target, and their keeper is a busy man making over four saves a game on average. Dortmund, at home, with their firepower, should have too much. I know the short price isn't glamorous, but sometimes the obvious tip is the right one. Bremen's best hope is a plucky draw, but with zero away wins recently, I can't see it.

Key Points:

Dortmund are 2nd, unbeaten in 9 of their last 10.

Bremen are 12th, without an away win in their last 5 attempts.

Dortmund score an average of 2.17 goals per game at home.

Bremen score just 0.6 goals per game on average away.

• Dortmund have won 6 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings.

All signs point to a home win. It might not be a cricket score, but Dortmund should have the quality and firepower to get the job done against a Bremen side that's finding goals harder to come by than a sunny day in January.