Preview
Right then, let's get stuck into this Boxing Day cracker. Stoke City welcome Preston to the bet365 Stadium, and on paper, it's a proper Championship scrap. Stoke sit 8th, Preston are 5th, but there's only three points in it. This is one of those games that could go either way, but the numbers tell a story.
Stoke are a bit of a mystery at the moment. Look at their last ten: four wins, six losses, and not a single draw in sight. They're either brilliant or bang average. At home, they're a different animal though – winning 60% of their last five here and banging in over two goals a game. Remember that 5-1 demolition of Bristol City? Or the 3-0 pasting of Charlton? On their day, they can blow teams away. But then you see the recent losses: 1-0 to Watford, 4-0 at Sheffield United, 1-2 at home to Hull. They're leaking goals on the road, but at home they only concede one per game. It's a classic case of Jekyll and Hyde.
Now, Preston. Blimey, they're a tough team to beat. Only one loss in their last ten, and that was at home to Blackburn. They've drawn five of those ten, including against the league leaders Coventry and a solid Wrexham side. But here's the kicker – they are unbeaten away from home in their last five, winning three and drawing two. They score nearly two goals a game on the road and are generally solid at the back, conceding just one per away game. They went to Southampton and won 2-0, and they came from behind to beat Sheffield Wednesday 3-2. This lot don't know when they're beaten.
The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Stoke fan. In the last five meetings at Stoke's place, they haven't won once against Preston. It's three losses and two draws. The last two meetings overall finished 1-1 and 0-0, so it's been tight recently.
So, what's gonna happen? Stoke will come out firing at home, they always do. They average over five shots on target per game here. But Preston are no mugs. They might not have the ball as much (averaging just 43% possession away), but they are more accurate with their shots. The key stat for me? In Preston's last ten games, both teams have scored in a whopping nine of them. That's a 90% hit rate. Stoke's games see both teams score 40% of the time, but at home, with their attack, you'd fancy them to find the net.
The bookies have Both Teams to Score priced at 1.83 for 'Yes'. Given Preston's incredible trend and Stoke's home firepower, that looks like a bit of value to me. The goal expectancies point to a 2-1 or 2-2 kind of game. Stoke's defence at home is decent, but Preston score goals on their travels. Preston's defence is okay, but Stoke put two past most visitors.
Key Points:
Stoke are strong at home (60% win rate last 5) but inconsistent overall (4 wins, 6 losses last 10).
Preston are incredibly hard to beat (1 loss in 10) and are unbeaten away in their last 5.
Stoke have a terrible home record against Preston (no wins in last 5 H2H at home).
Preston's games see both teams score 90% of the time recently.
- Stoke score an average of 2.2 goals per game at home.
Summary: This has all the makings of a proper Boxing Day battle. Stoke will be up for it in front of their own fans, but Preston are a resilient, well-organised side who score goals on the road. Given the overwhelming trend in Preston's matches and Stoke's attacking home form, I fancy both nets to ripple. The odds of 1.83 for Both Teams to Score - Yes offer enough value for a punt.
