Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Al Ittihad are at home on 13 October to face El Gouna FC, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Al Ittihad have been in decent nick of late. Three wins from their last five, including a 2-0 away at AL Masry and a 1-0 home win over Asyut Petrol. Over their last ten games, they've picked up 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, averaging 1.7 points per game and scoring 1.2 a game while keeping it to 0.7 conceded. At home over 20 games, they've won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, with 9 clean sheets in that stretch. They're not a team that scores in bundles, but they get the job done and keep things tidy.
Now look at El Gouna FC. Four games, four losses. One goal scored, six conceded. In their last ten, they've managed just 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, averaging 0.9 points per game. Zero clean sheets in ten. They failed to score in three of their last five. The red card in minute 14 against El Mokawloon five days ago didn't help, but even before that, they were struggling to find a way into games. Their away record over 20 games looks respectable — 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses — but that's a long stretch and the current form tells a very different story.
The head-to-head at this venue is the one thing that gives you pause. Back in November 2025, El Gouna came here and won 2-0, with an Al Ittihad red card in the 39th minute. That's ten months ago though, and the El Gouna that walked in that day is not the one arriving now. The other recent meeting was a 0-0 at El Gouna's ground in April. So the last two times these two have met, the scores have been low and the results have been split.
The counter-argument is simple: Al Ittihad just lost 0-1 to Wadi Degla at home in the League Cup five days ago. They're not on a winning streak, and that 1-3 loss to Ceramica Cleopatra six weeks ago showed they can get caught out. El Gouna, for all their misery, did draw 1-1 with Olympic El Qanah six weeks ago, so they're not completely without a spark.
Key Points:
- Al Ittihad have won 3 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.7 points per game
- El Gouna FC are on a 4-game losing run, scoring just 1 goal in that stretch
- Al Ittihad's home record: 9 wins from 20 games, 9 clean sheets
- The last meeting at this venue ended 0-2 to El Gouna in November 2025
- Both teams' recent records favour low-scoring games (under 2.5 in 4 of Al Ittihad's last 5, 15 of El Gouna's last 20 away)
My pick: Al Ittihad home win at 2.2. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the market's 45.45% implied probability undersells what I see in the numbers. I'd rate Al Ittihad's chance of winning at around 55%, which puts this at a comfortable value.