Alaves vs Girona Prediction

Howzit boets! Grab a cold one and fire up the braai because we've got a lekker La Liga clash coming up on Sunday night. Alaves hosting Girona at 20:00, and I'm telling you now, the bookies have got this one more wrong than a vegetarian at a boerewors festival.

Alaves have been struggling to find their groove lately. Looking at their last 10 games, they've only managed 3 wins and got a proper klap from Getafe last weekend (0-2 at home) – and Getafe have been playing like they're still in pre-season with just 0.40 points per game recently! Sure, they scraped a draw against Sevilla (1-1) on the road, but at home they've been leaking goals like a cheap cooler box – 1.40 conceded per game and only a 40% win rate in their last 5 at the fortress. They even lost to bottom-feeder Oviedo at home earlier this month.

Now look at Girona, my china. These okes just went to the Camp Nou and smoked Barcelona 2-1! Barcelona who are sitting pretty in 2nd place with 2.40 points per game and a +39 goal difference! That's not luck, that's proper football. They've won 5 of their last 10 matches and their away form is actually better than their home form with a 50% win rate on the road. They beat Real Sociedad away (2-1), beat Espanyol away (2-0), and even took down Mallorca on their travels. This team knows how to pack their bags and bring home the bacon.

The head-to-head record also favors the visitors. In the last 9 meetings, Girona have come out on top 4 times compared to Alaves' 2 wins. When these teams met back in November, Girona won 1-0. Alaves' home record against Girona specifically is nothing to write home about – just 1 win in 4 attempts (25% win rate).

The goal expectancies have both teams pegged at 1.28 expected goals, suggesting a tight contest on paper. But paper doesn't account for momentum, and right now Girona are flying higher than a drone at a rugby match after that Barcelona result. Alaves, meanwhile, are looking about as solid as a pap en vleis left out in the sun too long.

Key Points:

• Girona just beat Barcelona 2-1 away – massive confidence and quality shown

• Alaves lost 0-2 at home to struggling Getafe (0.40 PPG form) recently

• Girona's away win rate (50%) is superior to Alaves' home win rate (40%)

• Girona have won 4 of last 9 H2H meetings compared to Alaves' 2 wins

• Both teams average 1.10 goals per game recently, but Girona's defence is tighter (1.20 conceded vs 1.60)

Summary:

The bookies are offering 3.50 for Girona to win, which is lekker value considering their form and that massive Barcelona scalp. Alaves are there for the taking after that Getafe disaster at home. I'm firing on the Away Win – Girona to continue their hot streak and pile more misery on the home side!