Preview
Right then, let's have a proper gander at this Brazilian Serie A clash between Mirassol and Sao Paulo. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, but football's a funny old game, innit?
Mirassol are sitting pretty in 4th place with 49 points, having a proper decent season. They've been solid at home, winning 80% of their last 5 home games and banging in 2.6 goals per game at their own gaff. Recent results show they're no mugs - they've put Internacional to the sword 3-1 and seen off Fluminense 2-1. Yeah, they had a couple of blips against Corinthians and Atletico-MG, but who doesn't?
Sao Paulo, on the other hand, are in a right old state. They're languishing in 8th with 38 points, and their recent form is absolutely shocking. Get this - 7 losses in their last 10 games with ZERO draws. That's not just bad, that's relegation form, mate. They're scoring a pathetic 0.7 goals per game overall, and away from home? Just 0.4 goals per game! They've been shut out in 4 of their last 5 away matches. That's toothless stuff.
Now, I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head shows Sao Paulo have historically had Mirassol's number, especially at this ground where Mirassol have never beaten them. But form over history, I always say. Sao Paulo look completely shot of confidence right now, and you can't ignore stats like that.
The goal expectancies back this up - Mirassol are expected to score 1.90, Sao Paulo just 0.60. When you're averaging less than a goal away from home, you're in trouble.
Mirassol's home record speaks for itself - 2.6 goals per game scored, only 0.8 conceded. Sao Paulo away? 0.4 scored, 1.2 conceded. The numbers don't lie, do they?
The bookies have Mirassol at 2.35 for the win, which looks decent value to me given the massive gulf in form. Sao Paulo are 3.20, but you'd have to be brave to back them in this state.
I'm leaning towards the home win here. Sao Paulo's away form is that bad, you can't ignore it. Sometimes you just have to follow the form, and right now, Mirassol are flying while Sao Paulo are falling out of the sky.
