Arsenal vs Wolves Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's the classic top versus bottom clash, and the numbers don't lie – this one looks as one-sided as they come. Arsenal are sitting pretty at the summit, while Wolves are rooted to the foot of the table with just two points from fifteen games. That tells you most of what you need to know.

Arsenal's form is the stuff of title challengers. They've won seven of their last ten, scoring 23 and conceding just seven. At home, they're even more formidable, winning their last four on the bounce and banging in an average of nearly three goals a game. Look at those recent results: a 4-1 thumping of Tottenham, a 3-1 win over Bayern, and a 2-0 dismissal of Brentford. The only blip was a 2-1 loss away to a very good Aston Villa side. They're creating chances for fun, averaging over seven shots on target per game.

Now, let's talk about Wolves. Bless 'em, it's been a proper nightmare. No wins in their last ten, with nine losses and a single draw. They've lost their last four away games without scoring a single goal. Not one. Conceding four at home to Manchester United and three at Fulham tells its own story. They're averaging less than a goal a game and conceding over two. Their shot accuracy is a woeful 28% – they can't hit a barn door at the moment.

The head-to-head makes for even grimmer reading if you're a Wolves fan. Arsenal have won eight of the last nine meetings, including the last four at home without conceding a goal. The last time these two met, Arsenal nicked a 1-0 win. Given the current form, you'd expect a more comfortable scoreline this time.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Arsenal at a skinny 1.12 to win. That's about an 89% chance. Now, I'm a value man, and I reckon Arsenal's chance of winning this is closer to 92% given the sheer gulf in class and Wolves' complete inability to score on the road. That little bit of edge makes it worth a nod, even if the returns aren't huge. It's the ultimate banker for your weekend acca.

Key Points:

Arsenal are top of the league; Wolves are dead last with only 2 points.

Arsenal have won 100% of their last 4 home games, scoring 2.75 goals per game on average.

Wolves have lost their last 4 away games, failing to score in any of them.

Arsenal have won 8 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings, keeping 6 clean sheets.

• Wolves average just 0.7 goals per game and have a shot accuracy of only 28.4%.

The Verdict:

All the tea leaves point one way. Wolves are in a horrible rut and facing a side in flying form at home. The value is slim, but the probability is huge. For a straightforward, no-nonsense tip, back the Gunners to get the job done.