Atletico Tucuman vs Godoy Cruz Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. We've got two teams who'd rather be anywhere else than where they are in the table - both sitting pretty in 15th spot. But don't let that fool you, because there's a right old tale of two halves here.

Atletico Tucuman have been shocking on their travels - zero wins in six away games, getting hammered left, right, and centre. But at home? Different story entirely! They've turned their patch into a proper fortress, winning 75% of their last four home games. And we're not talking about beating up on the relegation fodder here - they've seen off River Plate 2-0, stuck two past Platense, and even gave Talleres a 3-0 hiding. They're averaging two goals per game at home while keeping it tight at the back.

Then you've got Godoy Cruz. Oh dear. These boys couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo at the minute. Half a goal per game overall? That's relegation form, that is. They've drawn five of their last ten, mostly tedious 0-0s and 1-1s. Away from home they're slightly less useless with 0.75 goals per game, but we're hardly talking about the Barcelona of South America here.

The head-to-head tells us what we need to know - Atletico have won five of the nine meetings, and at home it's three wins and a draw from four against these lot. Last time they met it ended 0-1, but without knowing where that was played, I'm not losing sleep over it.

Looking at the numbers, both teams are struggling for form, but Atletico's home advantage is massive here. Godoy simply don't score enough goals to trouble a side that's been solid defensively at home. The goal stats back this up - 1.62 expected for the home side, just 0.62 for the visitors.

The bookies have got the home win at 2.10, which looks about right to me. Given how Tucuman have been playing at home and how Godoy have been struggling to find the net anywhere, that's where the value lies.