Club America vs Puebla Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this mismatch from Mexico's top flight. We've got third-placed Club America hosting the league's basement boys Puebla, and on paper, this looks about as fair as a fight between a heavyweight and a featherweight.

Club America are sitting pretty in third with 27 points, while Puebla are propping up the entire table with a measly 8 points. That's a massive 19-point gap - tells you everything you need to know about the quality difference here.

Now, America's recent form has been a bit draw-happy, mind you. Seven draws in their last ten games, including some crackers like 3-3 against Minnesota United and 2-2 with Monterrey. They're scoring for fun (1.7 per game) but also letting them in at the back (1.5 per game). The stat that jumps out at me is their 90% both teams score rate - basically, when America play, both sides usually find the net.

Puebla, on the other hand, are having an absolute shocker. One win in ten games, and they can't buy a goal on their travels - just 0.5 per game away from home. They did manage a 4-3 win over Club Tijuana recently, but that looks more like a freak result than a turnaround. They're shipping goals at an alarming rate (2.6 per game overall), and their away form is dreadful.

Here's where it gets interesting though. The head-to-head between these two is an absolute goal-fest. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in seven of those. America have won seven of the nine encounters, but they tend to do it in style with plenty of goals.

The goal expectancy for this one is 3.13 goals, which backs up the head-to-head trend. America are expected to net nearly two goals, while even Puebla might manage one or two given America's leaky defence.

I know what you're thinking - America's home form has been all draws recently. But against the worst team in the league? At home? I reckon they'll break that duck, and probably with plenty of goals to spare.

Key Points:

• Massive quality gap: 3rd vs 18th in the table

• Head-to-head shows 8/9 matches over 2.5 goals

• Club America have 90% both teams score rate

• Puebla concede 2.6 goals per game

• Goal expectancy stands at 3.13 goals

• America's recent home form is draw-heavy but against much better opposition

Given the stats, I'm backing the goals market here. The head-to-head record screams goals, both teams tend to score, and Puebla's defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot. The odds of 1.53 for over 2.5 goals look decent value to me.