Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg Prediction

Alright, listen up! Saturday afternoon at Signal Iduna Park and we've got a proper Bundesliga clash on our hands. Borussia Dortmund, sitting pretty in second place, are hosting FC Augsburg who are bobbing along in mid-table. Now, I know what you're thinking - Dortmund at home, that's a banker, right? Well, hold your horses, because while the Black and Yellows should have too much quality, the real value here isn't in the match result market.

Let's have a butcher's at the recent form. Dortmund just nicked a 2-1 win away at Köln last weekend, which followed that gutting 2-3 home defeat to Bayern Munich and a rough night in the Champions League against Atalanta. So it's been a bit up and down, but they're still banging in goals for fun at home - averaging 2.20 per game in their own backyard. Even when they lose, it's usually a thriller like that 3-2 defeat to Bayern.

Now, Augsburg. These lads are a funny bunch. They got absolutely battered 4-0 at Gladbach not long ago, but then turned around and did the unthinkable - winning 2-1 away at Bayern Munich in January! They followed that up by beating Wolfsburg 3-2 on the road too. But here's the kicker: away from home, they leak goals like a sieve. We're talking 2.20 conceded per game on their travels. They lost 2-1 at Leipzig last week, and before that got shut out 2-0 at Mainz.

The head-to-head makes tasty reading for goal lovers. Dortmund have won 75% of home meetings against Augsburg, including a 5-1 demolition last year. Even when Augsburg get something, it's usually tight like that 1-0 earlier this season.

Key Points:

• Dortmund average 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per home game (3.60 total goals average)

• Augsburg average 1.20 scored but concede 2.20 per away game (3.40 total goals average)

• Goal expectancies suggest 3.50 total goals (Home 2.20, Away 1.30)

• Augsburg have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games (including at Bayern and Wolfsburg)

• Dortmund have seen Over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches

• Dortmund win odds of 1.40 offer no value despite 75% home H2H record

Summary: Look, Dortmund will probably win this - they're second in the table for a reason and Augsburg's away defence is shocking. But at 1.40, there's no meat on the bone for a home win. Instead, I'm looking at the goals market. With Dortmund's attacking firepower at home and Augsburg's tendency to both score and concede on the road (plus them needing results to push up the table), this has 3 or 4 goals written all over it. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.53 is the play here - the numbers back it up and it's far better value than the short-priced home win.