Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Sassuolo welcome Fiorentina to town, and blimey, what a tale of two seasons we've got here!

Sassuolo are sitting pretty in 10th with 17 points - not exactly setting the world alight, but solid enough. They've had a bit of a mixed bag lately, mind you. Got thumped 2-0 by Como in their last game, but before that, they showed what they can do with a cracking 3-0 win at Atalanta. They've also picked up draws against Pisa and Lecce, so they're not exactly pushovers at home.

Now then, Fiorentina... oh dear. Rock bottom of the table with just 6 points from 13 games. And get this - ZERO wins all season! That's not just bad, that's absolutely shocking. Their recent form reads like a horror story: lost to Atalanta, lost to AEK Athens, drew with Juventus, drew with Genoa. They've only managed 1 point from their last 3 league games. Their only win in 10 games came against Rapid Vienna in the Conference League.

Here's the interesting bit though - the bookies have got Fiorentina as favorites to win away at 2.55, with Sassuolo at 2.75. Are they 'aving a laugh? Fiorentina haven't won a single league game all season, yet they're favorites away from home against a mid-table side?

The head-to-head tells a different story. Sassuolo have won 3 out of 4 at home against Fiorentina historically. Both teams tend to score when they meet (8 out of 9 times), and there's usually a few goals flying about (over 2.5 in 7 out of 9 meetings).

Both sides are pretty similar in attack and defense - both scoring around 1 goal per game and both letting in 1.6. But when you factor in that Sassuolo are at home and Fiorentina are, well, absolutely dreadful, I reckon there's value here.

Sassuolo's home form hasn't been brilliant recently - no wins in their last 3 at home - but they're facing a team that can't buy a win. Fiorentina's away form is shocking too - just 1 win in 6 on the road.

Sometimes you've got to look beyond the recent results and see the bigger picture. Fiorentina are in crisis mode, while Sassuolo are competent enough to take advantage.

Key Points:

• Fiorentina are rock bottom with ZERO wins all season

• Sassuolo have a 75% home win rate against Fiorentina historically

• Both teams score and concede similar amounts (1.1 vs 1.0 scored, 1.6 conceded each)

• Fiorentina have taken just 1 point from their last 3 league games

• The odds seem to undervalue Sassuolo's home advantage against the league's worst team

I'm backing Sassuolo here. The odds of 2.75 for a home win against a team that hasn't won a single league game all season seems too good to turn down. Sometimes the simplest bet is the best one!