Rangers vs Hibernian Prediction

Right then, let's talk about Monday night's big one up in Glasgow. Rangers hosting Hibernian at Ibrox, and on paper, you'd fancy the home side every day of the week. They're fourth, Hibs are fifth, and the head-to-head record is as one-sided as a seesaw with a sumo wrestler on one end – Rangers have won five of the last eight, losing just once.

But hold your horses. Have you seen Rangers at home lately? Blimey, it's been tighter than a drum. In their last four games at Ibrox, they've scored just three goals. That's 0.75 a game. They drew 0-0 with Falkirk, beat Livingston 2-1, drew 1-1 with Braga in Europe, and lost 0-2 to Roma. They're creating chances – averaging over 55% possession – but the ball just isn't going in. Their shot accuracy at home is a worrying 29%. Meanwhile, Hibernian have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act. They've slapped the lower sides about – 3-0 wins over Falkirk and St Mirren, a 4-0 thumping of Livingston – but when they come up against the big boys, they've come up short. Losses to Celtic, Motherwell, Hearts, and of course, a 0-1 loss to these very Rangers back in October.

So what's the script for this one? Rangers have the historical edge and are the better side on the league table, but they're struggling to find the net at home. Hibernian have had nine days' rest while Rangers had a tough European trip to Hungary just four days ago. That fatigue could be a real leveller.

Looking at the goal markets, the bookies have Over 2.5 goals at a short 1.80. I'm not having that. Rangers' home games have been low-scoring affairs, and Hibs, for all their goals against the weaker teams, have only conceded more than once away twice in their last five on the road. The last meeting finished 1-0. I can see another tense, cagey affair here. Maybe a 1-0, 2-0, or even a 1-1 draw, but a goal-fest? I doubt it.

Key Points:

Rangers have won 5 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings.

Rangers' home form is a concern: just 1 win in their last 4 at Ibrox, scoring only 0.75 goals per game there.

Hibernian struggle against the top sides, losing to Celtic, Motherwell, and Rangers recently.

Hibernian have had 9 days rest; Rangers only 4 after a European away game.

• The last meeting between these sides ended 1-0 to Rangers.

In summary, this has all the makings of a tight, nervy Premiership clash. Rangers should have enough quality to avoid defeat, but their lack of home firepower and Hibs' resilience against the better teams points towards a game with fewer than three goals. The value, for me, lies in backing Under 2.5 Goals.