Servette FC vs FC Sion Prediction

Right, so we've got Servette FC at home taking on FC Sion on 10 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a bit of a puzzle to it.

The head-to-head at Servette's ground in the last 12 months is two games, two draws. 0–0 in February, 3–3 in January. So if you're a pattern-spotter, you'd say "right, it's a draw again." But two games is a thin line to hang a verdict on, and the football around them tells a different story.

Sion have been in proper form. Three wins and a draw in their last five, scoring 13 goals along the way. They hammered Grasshoppers 5–2, thrashed St. Gallen 3–0, and beat Thun 3–2 at home. Their away record over the last 20 games is 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, with 2.5 goals a game on the road. That's a team that comes to your place and scores.

Servette, on the other hand, have lost their last two. Three goals scored, five conceded. They beat Thun 4–2 and Lausanne 1–0 a few weeks back, but the last two outings have been a bit of a wobble. Their home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses – not bad, but the 7 draws tell you they're a team that can get stuck.

Now, the counter-argument is real. Sion lost 1–5 to Saint Etienne in a friendly on 2 October, and they've had two red cards in their last five games – one in the 27th minute against Zurich, one in the 41st against Thun. That's a bit of a distraction factor. And the fact that both recent meetings at Servette's ground have ended level is something you can't just wave away.

But when I look at the numbers, Sion's away record is the strongest thing in this fixture. 10 wins in 20 away games, 2.5 goals a game, and they've failed to score in only 2 of those 20. Servette at home concede 1.25 a game, which is decent, but Sion's scoring output on the road is hard to ignore.

The market has Sion at 2.5 for the win, which prices them at 40%. I'd put them a touch higher than that – I think Sion's form and away record give them a real edge here, and I'd rate their chances at around 44%. That's above the 40% the bookies are giving, and I can see value in the away win.

Key Points:

• Sion's last five: 3W 1D 1L, 13 goals scored, 10 conceded

• Sion's away record (20 games): 10W 5D 5L, 2.5 goals per game

• Servette's last two: both losses (scored 3, conceded 5)

• H2H at Servette's ground in the last 12 months: 2 draws (0–0, 3–3)

• Sion's friendly 1–5 loss to Saint Etienne and two red cards in five games are the main concerns

My pick: FC Sion away win at 2.5.