Scunthorpe vs York Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a tasty National League fixture on Tuesday night as fifth-placed Scunthorpe host second-placed York. Now, if you're looking for a tight, cagey affair, you might want to look elsewhere, because the numbers tell me this could be a belter – but probably only one way traffic.

Let's start with the hosts. Scunthorpe are sat in the playoff spots, but blimey, they've been leaking goals like a sieve lately. Four losses in their last ten, including a proper drubbing at home to Boston United – 3-6, have you ever seen such a thing? – and a 3-1 pasting away at Aldershot last Saturday. Before that, they took a 3-1 beating at Carlisle too. They're conceding two goals a game on average recently, and at home it's even worse – 2.5 per match. Sure, they can find the net themselves (2.00 per game at home), but when you're shipping that many, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.

Now, York. These lads are absolutely flying. Nine wins from their last ten, unbeaten in that run, and scoring for fun – 2.7 goals per game. They're right on Rochdale's tail in the title race, trailing by just one point, though they've played a game more. They know three points here keeps the pressure on. But here's the kicker – their away form is ridiculous. Five wins from five on the road recently, scoring 2.4 per game and conceding just 0.4. They've just put four past Halifax (4-1), three past Wealdstone away (3-0), and five past Braintree (5-0) in recent weeks. They've kept three clean sheets in those five away days, including 3-0 wins at Carlisle and Wealdstone.

The head-to-head is tight historically – one win apiece and three draws in the last five – but York took the reverse fixture 3-1 back in October. Given current form, that result looks about right for Tuesday too.

Key Points:

• York have won their last 5 away games in the league, scoring 12 and conceding just 2

• Scunthorpe have conceded 20 goals in their last 10 matches (2.0 per game)

• York are averaging 2.8 points per game over the last 10, compared to Scunthorpe's 1.2

• The visitors have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10, while Scunthorpe have managed just 2

• Scunthorpe's last home game saw them battered 3-6 by Boston United

The Verdict:

Look, Scunthorpe will have a go at home – they always do – but York are a class act right now. The visitors' attack is red hot, and Scunthorpe's defence is all over the shop. At 1.85, the away win is short but sweet, and it represents solid value given the gulf in form. I'm backing York to keep their title charge rolling.