AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this cracker! We've got the league leaders Stockport County making the trip to seventh-placed AFC Wimbledon, and on paper, this looks like the visitors have the edge.

Stockport are sitting pretty at the top of League One with 28 points, and you can see why when you dig into the numbers. They've been solid as a rock at the back, conceding just 10 goals in their last 10 games and keeping 4 clean sheets in that run. That's proper defensive organisation, that is. Their away form is particularly tasty - 75% win rate on their travels and banging in 2 goals per game away from home.

Wimbledon, bless 'em, have had a decent season so far with 25 points, but their recent form's been a bit up and down. They've shipped some proper stinkers lately - that 5-0 hammering by Peterborough and 0-2 loss to Gateshead will have hurt. They do score goals (14 in last 10), but they also let them in at the other end (14 conceded), and only 1 clean sheet in 10 games tells its own story.

The head-to-head doesn't make great reading for Wimbledon either. Stockport have won 3 of the 4 meetings between these two, including the last encounter. Wimbledon have only managed one home win against them in two attempts.

When you look at the stats, Stockport are just doing things better. They take more shots (13.67 vs 8 per game), have more possession (52.6% vs 44.5%), and crucially, they're much tighter at the back. Wimbledon's home form isn't exactly fearsome either - just 40% win rate in front of their own fans.

The odds of 2.17 for an away win look pretty decent to me. Stockport are top for a reason, they travel well, and they've got Wimbledon's number historically. Sometimes you just have to follow the form, and right now, Stockport's form is shouting 'top of the league'.