Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre Prediction

Alright, mate, fancy a flutter on the French football this Sunday? Stade Brestois 29 are hosting Le Havre down in Brittany, and if the numbers are anything to go by, the home side should be tucking into the points like a fresh baguette.

Brest have been proper solid at home lately, winning three of their last four at their gaff – and keeping the back door shut in three of those too. We're talking a cracking 2-0 against Marseille (who are no mugs sitting fourth in the table) and another 2-0 against Lorient. Even when they slipped up against Toulouse (0-2), they bounced back with a gritty 1-0 win away at Metz last time out. They're sitting pretty in ninth, just seven points off the European spots, and with 1.5 goals a game at home while only letting in 0.5, they're tighter than a duck's backside.

Now, let's have a butcher's at Le Havre. The lads from Normandy are struggling down in 13th, and away from home? Blimey, it's been a shocker. They've not won any of their last four on the road (that's zero, zilch, nada), losing three of them including a right pasting at Nantes (0-2) – and Nantes are second from bottom! They've only managed to stick the ball in the net once in those four away days, averaging a measly 0.25 goals per game on their travels. It's like watching paint dry, mate.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Le Havre fan. Brest have won the last five meetings between these two, including all three played at Brest's ground. The last time they met in October, Brest nicked it 1-0 away from home, and before that it was 2-0, 1-0, 2-1 – all tight affairs, but all going the way of the Bretons.

The goal expectancies suggest this'll be a low-scoring job – about 1.38 goals for Brest and 0.38 for Le Havre – which makes sense given Le Havre's inability to find the net on the road and Brest's defensive solidity at home. You might fancy the unders at 1.80, and I wouldn't blame you, but at 1.91 for the home win, there's proper value here. Brest are winning three-quarters of their home games against a side that can't buy a win away? That's maths even I can do.

Key Points:

• Brest have won 75% of their last 4 home games (W3 L1), keeping clean sheets in 3 of them

• Le Havre have won 0% of their last 4 away games (D1 L3), scoring just 1 goal in that run

• Brest have won the last 5 H2H meetings, including all 3 home fixtures (100% record)

• Goal expectancies suggest only 1.76 total goals (1.38 vs 0.38)

• Le Havre average just 0.25 goals per game away from home this season

Summary: The value's with the hosts. Brest are too strong at home and Le Havre are toothless away. Back the home win at 1.91.