Elche vs Espanyol Prediction

Alright lads, gather round. We've got a proper Sunday afternoon scrap in La Liga as Elche host Espanyol, and if you're looking for a match with more holes than a pub dartboard, you've found it.

Elche are in the mire, simple as that. Sat 17th in the table with just 25 points from 25 games, they're desperate for a win to climb out of the drop zone. But their recent form? Blimey. One win in their last ten - and that was a 4-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano back in December. Since then? It's been grim: losses to Barcelona (1-3), Villarreal (1-3), Real Sociedad (3-1), and a 2-1 defeat at Athletic Club last time out. They're conceding 1.90 per game recently and scoring just 1.40. At home it's slightly better - 1.60 goals per game - but they're shipping 1.60 at the other end too.

Now Espanyol, sitting pretty in 7th with 35 points, should be the favourites here, right? Well, not so fast. They've been nearly as bad recently - just two wins in their last ten. But here's the kicker: both those wins came away from home! They nicked it 1-0 at Getafe and 2-1 at Athletic Club. However, their away defence is leakier than a sieve in a thunderstorm - conceding 2.17 per game on the road, including four-goal pastings at Atletico Madrid and Villarreal recently.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Elche fans. Espanyol are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning three of them including the reverse fixture 1-0 back in October. Elche haven't beaten these lot in yonks.

But here's where it gets interesting for us punters. With Elche desperate for points and Espanyol's backline looking about as solid as a chocolate teapot away from home, we're expecting goals. Elche have seen Both Teams To Score land in 8 of their last 10 matches. Espanyol? 7 out of 10. The goal expectancies have this down for 3.43 total goals (1.88 for Elche, 1.55 for Espanyol).

Key Points:

• Elche have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 games (20%)

• Espanyol have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games (10%)

• BTTS has landed in 14 of the combined last 20 matches for these sides

• Espanyol's last 6 away games have seen 17 goals conceded (2.83 per game)

• Elche are winless in 5 home games against Espanyol (1 draw, 4 losses)

The Verdict:

I'm not touching the match odds with a bargepole - bookies have Elche at 2.35 which seems short given they're 17th and Espanyol have the wood on them. But at 1.80, Both Teams To Score is screaming value. Elche need to attack to save their season, Espanyol can't keep a clean sheet away from home, and both sides have been involved in goal-fests recently. Get on it.