Preview
Right, so here we are. SalPa at home, OLS on the road, and if you've been watching SalPa's last five, you'd be hard pushed to find a better time to back them. Four wins from five, 18 goals scored, and that 4-0 hammering of PKKU just eight days ago says they're in the zone. At home specifically, they've won 9 of their last 20 games and scored 2.1 a game, which in Ykkönen terms is a proper punch.
And the head-to-head at this ground? SalPa beat OLS 4-1 back in August. That's not a close one. That's a statement. OLS, for their part, just lost 0-1 to Tampere United at home eight days ago, and their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 9 draws, 6 losses. They're not exactly setting the world alight on the road.
Now, the counter-argument. OLS's defence has been tidy recently — 0.8 conceded per game in their last five — and they've scored in four of those five. Their away record does show 2.05 goals per game, so they're not a team that just parks the bus. And that 5-0 win over SalPa at OLS's ground in June shows they can handle this fixture when the roles are reversed. Plus, 9 draws in 20 away games means they're stubborn. You can't write them off entirely.
But here's the thing: SalPa have been over 2.5 goals in all five of their last games. OLS have been over 2.5 in three of five. The home record says 13 of 20 games have gone over 2.5. The numbers are pointing one way, and the form is with SalPa. They're scoring like they've got a point to prove, and OLS's last outing was a shutout loss.
Key Points:
- SalPa are 4W 1L in their last five, scoring 3.6 per game
- The last meeting at SalPa's ground ended 4-1 to the hosts
- OLS's away record is 5W 9D 6L over 20 games, with 9 draws showing their stubbornness
- OLS just lost 0-1 at home and have conceded only 0.8 per game in their last five
- SalPa's home record: 9W 3D 8L, 2.1 scored per game
So with SalPa at 1.75 to take this one, the form, the venue record and the head-to-head all point the same way. I'm going with the SalPa home win.
