Ipswich vs West Brom Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash between Ipswich and West Brom. The Tractor Boys are sitting 13th with 13 points, while the Baggies are up in 9th with 17 points - not much between 'em on the table, but there's a tale to tell in the stats.

Ipswich have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit this season. At home, they're decent enough - winning half their games and banging in 2.17 goals per match. They've put five past Sheffield Utd and three past Norwich at Portman Road. But away from home? Absolutely shocking, mate. Zero wins in four away games and only half a goal per game on their travels.

West Brom, on the other hand, are surprisingly handy on the road. Fifty percent win rate away from home! They've picked up decent results at Norwich and Stoke City recently. They're not exactly free-scoring though - just one goal per game away from home.

Here's the thing that catches my eye - Ipswich's defence is leakier than a pub toilet after closing time. Only one clean sheet in ten games, and at home they're letting in 1.33 goals per match. West Brom aren't exactly solid at the back either, conceding in 70% of their away games.

The head-to-head doesn't make great reading for Ipswich fans either - never beaten West Brom in four attempts, though they did draw 2-2 last time out.

Looking at the shooting stats, Ipswich love a pot shot at home - nearly 20 shots per game compared to West Brom's 12 away. The Tractor Boys should create plenty of chances, but can they finish 'em?

The goal expectancy suggests around 2.8 goals in this one, which points towards a decent amount of action. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ipswich's home games and 50% of West Brom's away games this season.

West Brom are better rested too - seven days off compared to Ipswich's four, and they've played one fewer game in the last fortnight.

Key Points:

• Ipswich strong at home (50% win rate, 2.17 goals per game)

• West Brom surprisingly good away (50% win rate)

• Both teams have leaky defences

• Head-to-head favours West Brom (0W-2D-2L for Ipswich)

• Goal expectancy suggests 2.8 goals

• West Brom better rested

For me, the value's in the goals market. Both teams to score looks the shout here - Ipswich's home attack should fire, but their defence will likely let one in at the other end. At 1.80, it's not bad value given both teams' defensive records and the head-to-head history.