Manchester United vs West Ham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. United at home against a West Ham side struggling down the bottom - on paper it looks straightforward, but football's never that simple, is it?

United are sitting pretty in 7th with 21 points, and their home form has been proper decent - winning 75% of their last four at the old Trafford. They're banging in 2 goals per home game on average, which ain't bad at all. But here's the thing - their defense is about as solid as a chocolate teapot! Only one clean sheet in their last ten games, and they've been conceding in 70% of their matches. Even when they win, they tend to leak goals.

West Ham, bless 'em, are in a right pickle down in 17th. Just 11 points from 13 games and they can't buy a win away from home - 0% win rate in their last four on the road. They're shipping goals for fun too, conceding nearly 2 per away game. But here's where it gets interesting - they do manage to score now and then. 1.1 goals per away game and they've found the net in 60% of their recent matches.

The head-to-head tells a story though - United absolutely love playing West Ham at home, winning 83% of their encounters. Last time out it was a 2-1 win for United, and there's been no draws in nine meetings between these two.

Looking at the stats, United are firing more shots (13.9 vs 9) and keeping more possession (51% vs 42%), which suggests they'll have the lion's share of the game. But with both defenses looking about as reliable as a weather forecast, I'm fancying both teams to get on the scoresheet.

United's attack should be too much for West Ham's leaky defense, but given that United haven't kept a clean sheet in ages and West Ham do score occasionally, BTTS looks the value play here.

Key Points:

• United strong at home (75% win rate) but defensively vulnerable (1 clean sheet in 10 games)

• West Ham dreadful away (0% win rate) but score occasionally (60% BTTS rate)

• Head-to-head heavily favors United at home (83% win rate)

• Both teams have defensive issues - United concede in 70% of games, West Ham in 100%

• Goal expectancy suggests around 2.88 goals in the match

The Verdict: United should win this, but both teams to score at 1.67 looks better value than the home win at 1.48. Both defenses are about as convincing as a politician's promise, and I reckon we'll see goals at both ends.