Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Turkish tussle between Rizespor and the basement boys Fatih Karagümrük. One look at the league table tells you most of the story - Rizespor sitting mid-table with 10 points, while Fatih are propping up the whole damn show with just 4 points from 10 games. Ouch.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Rizespor's home form is, shall we say, not exactly fearsome. They've managed just one win in their last four at home, scoring a measly 0.75 goals per game on their own patch. That's not exactly setting the world alight, is it? They did grab a decent 1-1 draw against Samsunspor in their last home game, but before that they were blanked 0-0 by Istanbul Basaksehir.

Fatih Karagümrük, on the other hand, are having an absolute shocker. They haven't kept a single clean sheet in 10 games this season. Not one! Their away form is particularly grim - losing three of their last four on the road. They did manage to score a couple against Kayserispor in a 2-2 draw, but let's be honest, Kayserispor aren't exactly world-beaters either.

The head-to-head doesn't make great reading for Rizespor either - they've only won one of the seven meetings between these sides. But at home, they've got a slightly better record with that one win coming on their own patch.

Looking at the recent results, Rizespor showed they can bang in the goals when they travel (scoring 1.83 per game away from home), but at home? It's like they leave their shooting boots in the dressing room. Fatih, meanwhile, concede for fun (2.2 per game overall) but don't always score enough to make it a goal fest.

So what's the play here? Rizespor should have enough to see off the league's worst side, but their home scoring record is proper worrying. Fatih will probably concede (they always do), but whether we'll see enough goals to go over 2.5 is the real question.

Key Points:

• Rizespor score just 0.75 goals per home game - proper poor

• Fatih haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 matches - shocking defensive record

• Fatih have lost 75% of their away games this season

• Rizespor's home form: 25% win rate in last four at home

• Head-to-head favours Fatih overall but Rizespor better at home

The smart money here looks to be on goals being at a premium. Rizespor simply don't score enough at home, and while Fatih's defence is leakier than a sieve, they don't always find the net themselves. Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 looks like the value play in what could be a proper scrappy affair.