Ferroviária vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Brazilian Serie B clash between Ferroviária and Atletico Paranaense. And blimey, what a tale of two teams we've got here!

You've got Ferroviária sitting pretty in 17th spot with just 40 points from 36 games - they're drawing more games than my uncle at the pub raffle (16 draws this season!). Their recent form's been a right mixed bag with just one win in their last ten, and that was away from home. At their own patch, they've not won in five attempts - three draws and two losses. They're scoring a measly 0.8 goals per game at home, which is about as threatening as a wet paper bag.

Then you've got Atletico Paranaense, sitting pretty in 2nd place with 59 points and pushing for promotion. They've been proper solid recently too - six wins in their last ten games, and get this, SEVEN clean sheets in those ten matches! Their defence's been tighter than a Scotsman's wallet, conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Even away from home, they're decent enough with two wins in their last five on the road.

Looking at the recent results, Ferroviária have been drawing everything - 2-2 with Vila Nova, 2-2 with Paysandu, 2-2 with CRB, 1-1 with Goias. They're the draw kings! But Atletico Paranaense have been keeping things tidy at the back with 2-0 wins over Volta Redonda and Amazonas, plus a 1-0 away win at Goias.

The only time these two met before was back in July, and it finished 1-1. But given how much better Atletico Paranaense are playing now and how Ferroviária can't buy a win at home, I'm fancying the away side to nick this one.

Key Points:

• Ferroviária haven't won in 5 home games (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)

• Atletico Paranaense have 7 clean sheets in their last 10 games

• Massive gap in league positions: 2nd vs 17th

• Ferroviária score only 0.8 goals per game at home

• Atletico Paranaense concede just 1.0 goal per game away

• Previous meeting ended 1-1 in July

The away side's quality and defensive solidity should be enough to see them through against a Ferroviária side that's drawing for fun but can't seem to win at home. At 1.95, there's decent value in backing the promotion-chasers to take all three points.