Preview
Right then, grab a pint and let's talk UCD vs Wexford. It's the First Division, and we're looking at a proper scrap at the UCD grounds. UCD are sitting 3rd in the table with 13 points, while Wexford are right behind them in 4th with 12 points. It's a tight battle, but the home advantage is the key here.
UCD have been proper solid at home. In their last 4 home games, they've won 75% of them. They're scoring 2 goals a game on their patch and only conceding half a goal per game. That's graft and defence working together. Wexford, on the other hand, are a bit shaky on the road. Their away win rate in the last 4 games is just 25%. They're scoring 1.5 goals away, but they're also conceding 1.25. That defence is a bit leaky.
Look at the head-to-head. The last time these two met, UCD walked away with a 3-0 win. In fact, UCD have won the last three meetings at home. Wexford have won 4 of the last 10, but the recent trend is all UCD. The odds for a UCD win are 2.20. That implies a 45% chance, but looking at the form, I'd put their real chance closer to 60%. That's value.
Goals might be up for grabs too. The expected goals are around 2.62 for the match. UCD are averaging 2.00 home goals, Wexford are averaging 1.50 away goals. But the best value is the win. The odds are decent, and the form says UCD should take the three points.
Key Points:
- UCD Home Win Rate: 75% (last 4 home games)
- Wexford Away Win Rate: 25% (last 4 away games)
- Last H2H: UCD 3-0 Wexford
- UCD Home Goals: 2.00/game
- Wexford Away Conceded: 1.25/game
My pick is clear. UCD have the edge at home, the form is on their side, and the odds offer value. I'm backing the home side to get the win.
Tip: UCD to Win
