Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Shandong Luneng are at home against Hangzhou Greentown on 17 October, and if you want to know who's got the edge, the numbers at this ground don't really leave much room for debate.
Shandong Luneng have won 12 of their last 20 home games, drawing 5 and losing 3. That's a run of results that spans from August 2025 through to September 2026, and it tells you this is a place where they score — 2.3 goals per game on average — and they keep the ball out of their own net, conceding just 1.35. Hangzhou Greentown, on the other hand, have won only 4 of their last 20 away games, drawing 7 and losing 9. They score 1.4 per game on the road and concede 1.95. That's a team that really struggles when the travel is on.
Now, the head-to-head at this specific ground is a bit thin. The two most recent meetings between these sides were both at Hangzhou's end — a 4–1 win for Hangzhou in May 2026 and a 2–2 draw in October 2025. The meetings at Shandong's ground go back further: 4–2 and 3–0, both Shandong wins. Those are older games, so I wouldn't call them a current trend, but they do show this ground has been a tough place for Hangzhou to get results.
Shandong's recent form is a bit patchy, I'll give them that. They've drawn their last two — 1–1 at Chongqing Tongliang Long on 11 October and 1–1 against Sichuan Jiuniu at home on 5 September — and they lost 0–3 to Shanghai SIPG at home in the FA Cup on 1 September. That 0–3 stung. But they did beat Shanghai Shenhua 3–2 away on 28 August, so there's still a bit of fire in the engine.
Hangzhou's form is mixed too. They lost 2–4 to Shanghai SIPG at home on 9 October, but before that they were winning big — 4–1 against Wuhan Three Towns and 6–0 against Yunnan Yukun, both at home. They've scored 14 goals in their last five games, which tells you they've got the firepower, but they've also conceded 8. Their away record is the real concern here.
The matchup table makes the case for Shandong. At home, they average 2.05 points per game compared to Hangzhou's 0.95 away. They score 2.3 per game at home to Hangzhou's 1.4 away, and concede 1.35 to 1.95. The gap is significant and it's the strongest signal in this fixture.
Key Points:
- Shandong Luneng have won 12 of their last 20 home games, averaging 2.3 goals per game
- Hangzhou Greentown have won just 4 of their last 20 away games, conceding 1.95 per game
- The two recent head-to-head meetings were both at Hangzhou's ground; meetings at Shandong's ground are historical
- Shandong have drawn their last two matches, but the 20-game home record is the stronger signal
- Hangzhou score a lot — 2.8 per game in their last five — but their away record is poor
The market prices Shandong Luneng's win at 1.8, which implies 55.56%. I'd put their chances a touch higher, around 58%, given the weight of the home record against Hangzhou's struggles on the road. That's a small edge, but the numbers at this ground are hard to ignore.
My pick: home win for Shandong Luneng.