Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's 10th versus 11th in the A-League, Perth Glory hosting Central Coast Mariners. On paper, it's a proper scrap between two sides looking to climb away from the wrong end of the table. But the numbers, my friends, tell a very different story to the bookies' odds.

Perth Glory are the favourites here at 1.83. But have you seen their home form? It's shocking. Truly. In their last five games at their own gaff, they've managed one win – a 1-0 against bottom-side Western Sydney – and four losses. They've scored just one goal in those five matches. One! That's an average of 0.2 goals per game at home. Their other results? 0-1 to Adelaide, 0-1 to Sydney, 0-1 to these very Mariners, and 0-2 to Melbourne Victory. They can't buy a goal at home. It's a proper mystery, because away from home they look a different side, beating the likes of Melbourne City 3-1 and Macarthur 2-0.

Now, the Central Coast Mariners. They're down in 11th, but they've just gone and smashed Adelaide United 4-0 away from home. That's a statement, that is. Their away record shows they score goals on the road – 1.6 per game on average. They're leaky at the back too, conceding 1.6, so their games tend to be open. But crucially, they've already been to Perth this season and won 1-0. They know how to get a result here.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. The Mariners have won three of the last nine meetings, with four draws. Over 2.5 goals has happened more often than not. But the most recent fixture is the one that matters: Mariners 1-0 winners at Perth back in November.

So, why are Perth favourites? Probably because they're at home. But their 'home advantage' is non-existent right now. The stats back it up: at home, Perth average 14.4 shots but only 2.4 on target – a woeful 16.6% accuracy. They have the ball (51% possession) but do nothing with it. The Mariners, on the other hand, are more clinical away, hitting the target with 31% of their shots.

The trends are pointing up for the Mariners too – their goals scored, conceded, and points are all on an 'improving' trajectory. Perth's points trend is 'declining'. The Mariners are coming in with a bit of momentum after that 4-0 thumping.

Key Points:

Perth Glory have lost four of their last five home games, scoring just once.

Central Coast Mariners have already beaten Perth 1-0 away this season.

Mariners are scoring 1.6 goals per game on average away from home.

Perth's home attack is the worst in the league, averaging 0.2 goals per game.

• The bookies have Perth as favourites (1.83), but the recent form guide suggests that's all wrong.

Look, sometimes you've got to ignore the name and the venue and look at what's actually happening on the pitch. Perth are dreadful at home. The Mariners are capable on the road and just bagged four away. At odds of 4.00 for an away win, there's serious value to be had. It's not a banker, but it's a punt with a much better chance than the price suggests. I'm backing the Mariners to do the double over a Glory side who can't find the net in their own backyard.