Hibernian vs ST Mirren Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Premiership clash. Hibernian welcome St Mirren to their gaff, and on paper, it looks a straightforward one for the home side. But as we know, football's never that simple, is it?

Hibs are sitting pretty in 5th, a solid 16 points ahead of St Mirren who are down in 9th. The form book tells a clear story too. Over their last ten, Hibs have picked up four wins, three draws, and three losses. That's decent going, especially when you see who they've been playing. At home, they're a tough nut to crack. They've not lost at home in their last five, beating the likes of Dundee Utd 3-2, Aberdeen 2-0, and even the league leaders Heart of Midlothian 3-2. They also held Rangers to a 0-0 draw. That's some serious home form against the big boys.

Now, let's talk about St Mirren. Bless 'em, they just can't buy a win on the road. In their last seven away games, it's a big fat zero wins, with five draws and two losses. They're the draw specialists, but they're also goal-shy. They've only managed four goals in their last ten games overall, and a measly 0.43 per game on their travels. Their recent away results read like a list of stalemates: 1-1 at Airdrie, 0-0 at Dundee Utd, 1-1 at Livingston. They did pull off a shock 1-0 win at home to Hearts recently, but that's their only win in ten.

The head-to-head history is a funny one. St Mirren actually have the edge overall, winning three of the nine meetings, with Hibs only winning two. At Hibs' place, it's even more surprising: St Mirren have won twice, drawn once, and lost just once in four visits. The last meeting was a 3-0 result back in November, though the data doesn't say who won! Traditionally, these games have goals – seven of the nine have seen over 2.5 goals.

But here's where the maths comes in, and I love a bit of maths. St Mirren's attack away is practically non-existent. They average less than half a goal per game on the road. Hibs, while strong going forward at home (1.8 goals per game), have a decent enough defence, conceding just one per game at their place. St Mirren also keep it tight, conceding only one per game away. So, we could be looking at a cagey affair.

The bookies have Hibs at 1.91 to win, which is fair enough. But the value, in my book, lies elsewhere. Both Teams to Score 'No' is priced at 2.08. Given St Mirren's inability to find the net on the road – they've failed to score in three of their last five away trips – and the fact Hibs have kept two clean sheets in their last ten, I fancy the chances of at least one team drawing a blank. Hibs might well grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win.

Key Points:

Hibernian are strong at home, unbeaten in five with wins over top sides.

St Mirren are winless in seven away games, drawing five of them.

St Mirren score just 0.43 goals per game on the road.

Head-to-head history favours St Mirren, but current form is king.

• The value bet looks to be Both Teams to Score 'No' at attractive odds.

To sum it up, I can see Hibs getting the job done, but St Mirren's lack of firepower means they might struggle to trouble the scorers. I'm leaning towards a home win, but the smarter play for your pocket is backing at least one team not to score.