Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this A-League basement battle. Both Perth Glory and Melbourne Victory are propping up the table with just one point each after two games, so someone's got to start climbing out of the relegation zone here.

Perth come into this on the back of a right hammering - they got stuffed 4-0 by Melbourne City in their last outing. Before that, they showed some grit to nick a 2-2 draw with Wellington Phoenix, but that defensive collapse against City will have hurt. What's really worrying for Perth fans is their recent record against today's opponents - they've lost both friendlies against Melbourne Victory, going down 3-0 and 1-0. That's not just bad luck, that's a proper pattern forming.

Melbourne Victory aren't exactly pulling up trees either mind you. They just shipped five goals in a 5-2 pasting by Newcastle Jets, though they did keep a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw with Auckland. But here's where it gets interesting - the head-to-head record is completely one-sided traffic. Victory have won 7 out of 9 meetings against Perth, and those recent friendly wins show they've got Perth's number.

The stats tell a proper tale too. Perth actually bang in more goals at home (2.33 per game) than Victory do on their travels (1.80), but their defence is leakier than a sieve. Victory's away form shows they're just as generous at the back, conceding 2.00 per game away from home. Both teams are desperate for points and both have defences you could drive a bus through - recipe for goals, anyone?

The goal expectancy model has this as a high-scorer, with Perth expected to net 2.17 and Victory 1.57. When you've got two bottom-of-the-table sides with shaky defences going at it, you usually get an end-to-end affair with plenty of chances.

Victory are favourites at 1.95, which seems about right given they've got Perth's number historically and their overall form is slightly better (40% win rate vs Perth's 20%). The odds aren't massive, but given the head-to-head dominance and the fact Perth just got absolutely hammered, it looks like the sensible play.