Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction

Qingdao Youth Island host Dalian Zhixing on 11 October in the Super League, and the numbers tell a story the market hasn't quite priced in.

The strongest case for the hosts starts with their home record over 20 games: 7 wins, 10 draws, 3 losses, averaging 1.55 points per game and conceding just 1 goal per match. Dalian Zhixing's away record over the same 20-game span is 3 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses, at 0.85 points per game, conceding 2.05 goals per outing. That gap in both points and defensive solidity is hard to ignore. The most recent meeting between the two, back in May at Dalian's ground, ended 2–3 in Qingdao's favour. The two meetings before that — in October 2025 and April 2025 — also went Qingdao's way, but those are well over a year old and don't really tell us about current form.

The counter-argument is Dalian Zhixing's recent form. They have won their last two matches — a 2–1 home win over Qingdao Jonoon and a 1–0 home win over Shanghai Shenhua in the FA Cup — and sit at 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses from their last five, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their points per game over that stretch is 2.2, comfortably above Qingdao's 1.4. Qingdao Youth Island, for their part, have drawn their last two (2–2 at Wuhan Three Towns and 1–1 at Tianjin Teda) and sit at 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses from five. They haven't lost in that stretch, but the flatness is real.

Still, the structural evidence — the home record, the away record, and the most recent head-to-head — points firmly in Qingdao's direction. Dalian's 9 losses from 20 away games is the single most telling figure in this fixture, and the little puppy at home has every right to be optimistic here.

Key Points:

• Qingdao Youth Island's home record: 7W 10D 3L, 1.55 ppg, 1 goal conceded per game

• Dalian Zhixing's away record: 3W 8D 9L, 0.85 ppg, 2.05 goals conceded per game

• Head-to-head: Qingdao Youth Island won the most recent meeting (2–3 at Dalian's ground in May 2026); two older meetings also went Qingdao's way

• Dalian Zhixing won their last 2 matches (3W 2D 0L from 5)

• Qingdao Youth Island drew their last 2 matches (1W 4D 0L from 5)

The market has Dalian Zhixing as the very slight favourite at 2.68, but the football evidence says the home side has the edge. I'm backing the Qingdao Youth Island home win at 2.7.