Alaves vs Celta Vigo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga scrap between Alaves and Celta Vigo. On paper, it's tight as a drum - only two points separating these two in mid-table, but dig a bit deeper and there's a proper tale of two forms here.

Alaves are sitting pretty in 10th with 15 points, but their recent form's been a bit hit and miss. They've managed 4 wins in their last 10, but look closer and you see they're losing more than they're winning. They had a decent 2-1 win over Espanyol early November, but then fell 1-0 to Girona. Before that, they put seven past Deportivo Getxo in the Cup, which was lovely, but let's be honest - that's like shooting fish in a barrel. The real worry is they've lost three of their last five in the league.

Now Celta Vigo, that's a different kettle of fish entirely. They might be three places below Alaves in the table, but their recent form's been top drawer. Six wins in their last 10 games, and get this - they've won 80% of their last five away matches! That's not just good, that's proper impressive. They're scoring for fun too - two goals per game on average. They might have lost 2-4 to Barcelona, but who doesn't? More telling is they went to Levante and won 2-1, then smashed three past Osasuna away from home.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Alaves fans. Out of nine meetings, Celta have won six, drawn two, and Alaves have only managed one win. At home, it's even worse for the Basque side - one win, one draw, two losses. Last time they met, it finished 1-1, but historically, Celta have had Alaves' number.

Alaves aren't terrible at home mind you - they're keeping things tight at the back, conceding just one per game on their own patch. But Celta's away form is just too good to ignore. They're scoring 2.2 goals per game away from home, and with the form they're in, they'll fancy their chances here.

The bookies have got Celta as slight underdogs at 3.00, but given their away record and recent form, that looks like proper value to me. Sometimes the table doesn't tell the full story, and this feels like one of those times.