Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction

G'day mates. Welcome to another day of action in the J2/J3 League. We've got a clash between Shonan Bellmare and Montedio Yamagata on 2026-03-14. If you love your beer and your wins, you're in the right place. No politics, no fuss, just the stats that matter. We are treating this match like a BBQ feast. Lots of meat, lots of points.

Shonan Bellmare are sitting pretty in the table with 10 points from 5 games. They are third in the standings. At home, they are a different beast. Their home win rate is 80.00% from the last 5 home games. They score a hefty 2.40 goals per game at their venue. That is serious firepower. Manager is listed as Unknown, but the results speak for themselves. They recently beat Sagamihara 4-0 at home. Their home goals conceded is just 0.80 per game. This defensive solidity gives them a solid platform to attack.

Montedio Yamagata are fifth with 8 points. Their away form is a mixed bag. They have won 50.00% of their last 6 away games. But look at the defensive numbers. Their away clean sheet rate is 0.00%. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 games. In fact, they have a 90.00% Both Teams to Score percentage away from home. That is a red flag for the visitors. They scored 1.67 goals per game away, which is fine, but they give away 1.33. They are an open door.

The goal expectancy points to a high-scoring affair. The mathematical model suggests a total of 3.10 goals. Shonan are expected to score 1.87 goals at home. Montedio are expected to score 1.23 goals away. When you combine Shonan's home scoring rate of 2.40 goals per game with Montedio's away concession of 1.33 goals per game, the case for goals becomes very strong. Recent form backs this up. Shonan beat Tochigi City 3-1 away recently. Montedio lost 0-1 to Akita away but scored in their last 5 away games.

Key Points:

• Shonan Bellmare Home Win Rate: 80.00%

• Montedio Yamagata Away Clean Sheets: 0.00%

• Match Goal Expectancy: 3.10

• Montedio Away BTTS Rate: 90.00%

• Shonan Home Avg Goals Scored: 2.40

• Odds for Over 2.5 Goals: 2.01

Head to head history shows 8 matches with 4 wins for Shonan and 3 for Montedio. The average goals per match in H2H is 2.00. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 4 of those 8 meetings. This trend supports the expectation of goals in this matchup.

In conclusion, while the home win is tempting at 1.95, the statistical edge lies in the goals. Both teams are prone to conceding and scoring. Montedio have not kept a clean sheet in 10 games. Shonan score frequently at home. This sets the stage for a lively encounter. My recommendation is to back the goals.

Bet: Over 2.5 Goals.