Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 1 clash. Marseille, sitting pretty in fourth, welcome a Strasbourg side in seventh who are having a decent season themselves. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but football's never that simple, is it?

Marseille are a proper puzzle at the moment. One week they're putting three past Lens, who are second in the league, and the next they're getting turned over 2-0 at home by Nantes, who are down near the bottom. Their last ten games tell the story: four wins, two draws, four losses. They're scoring for fun – 24 goals in that run – but they're also leaking them, conceding 20. At home, it's a coin flip: won two, lost two from their last four there. They can be brilliant, but they can also be a bit of a mess at the back.

Now, Strasbourg are the interesting ones here. Their last ten reads six wins, two draws, only two defeats. They're averaging two points a game, which is top-four form. The real eye-opener is their away record: in their last four on the road, they're scoring an average of three goals a game! They went to Lille and walloped them 4-1. They don't concede many either, just one a game on their travels. They did have a wobble last time out, losing 2-1 to Le Havre, but overall, they're a tough, confident side who know where the net is.

When these two meet, it's usually a tight, cagey affair. Looking at the head-to-head, there have been nine meetings. Marseille have won three, but there have been a whopping five draws. Strasbourg have only won once. Marseille are unbeaten at home against them in this data. The last game finished 2-1 to Marseille back in September.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Marseille at 1.73 to win. That's tempting, but with their up-and-down form, I'm not sure it's a banker. The draw at 4.32 has some appeal given the history, but Strasbourg are in better form than a typical draw specialist.

For me, the value lies in the goals markets. Both teams are scoring plenty. Marseille's games are seeing over four goals on average recently. Strasbourg's away games are seeing four goals on average too. More importantly, both teams have been scoring in most of their matches. Strasbourg have found the net in 8 of their last 10. Marseille have conceded in 8 of their last 10. It's a recipe for goals at both ends.

The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at 1.65. I reckon the chance of both teams scoring is much higher than the 60% that price suggests. With the firepower Strasbourg bring on the road and Marseille's ability to score (and concede) at home, it feels like the most likely outcome.

Key Points:

Marseille are inconsistent but dangerous, especially at home where they beat Lens 3-1.

Strasbourg are in great form, scoring 3 goals per game on their recent travels.

Head-to-head history is draw-heavy, with 5 draws in the last 9 meetings.

Both teams have scored in 80% of Strasbourg's last 10 games.

• Marseille have conceded in 80% of their last 10 games.

The Simple Tip: Sometimes you don't need to overcomplicate it. Both teams are in the mood to attack, and both have defences that can be got at. I'm backing Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.65. It's the standout value bet in this fixture.