Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this mid-table tussle. Perth Glory and Brisbane Roar are both sat on 16 points, separated only by goal difference and a game in hand for Perth. On paper, it's as tight as a drum. But dig into the recent results, and a clear picture starts to form.

Perth are a proper Jekyll and Hyde side at the minute. Their last ten games show five wins and five losses – no draws, all or nothing. But here's the funny bit: they're brilliant on the road, scoring over two goals a game away from home, but at their own gaff? They've only won one of their last six, scoring a measly 0.67 goals per game on average. They're coming off a lovely 3-0 win over the bottom side, Central Coast, but before that, they'd lost three home games on the spin. It's a weird one.

Now, Brisbane Roar. Blimey, they've hit a wall. Three defeats on the bounce, and they haven't even found the net in any of them. Lost 2-0 to the league leaders Auckland, 1-0 to Melbourne City, and then got turned over 3-0 at home by Wellington. That's not the form of a side brimming with confidence. Their attack has gone on its holidays, managing just 0.83 goals per game on their travels.

The history between these two is a proper goal-fest. Seven of the last eight meetings have seen over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in those seven as well. It's usually a cracker. But – and it's a big but – that was then. This is now, and Brisbane couldn't hit a cow's backside with a banjo at the moment.

So, what's the bet? The odds for Both Teams to Score 'No' are sitting at a tasty 1.91. The maths says that's a coin flip, but I'm not having it. With Brisbane's attack colder than a penguin's pocket and Perth's home games tending to be tight, I fancy one, or maybe even both, teams to draw a blank. The goal expectancy models point to a low-scoring affair too.

Key Points:

Perth Glory have a poor home record (1 win in last 6) but are improving overall.

Brisbane Roar are on a 3-game losing streak, failing to score in all three.

Head-to-head history is full of goals, but current form tells a different story.

Brisbane averages just 0.83 goals per away game; Perth averages 0.67 at home.

• Fatigue edge to Perth, who've had more rest and fewer recent games.

The Simple Tip: Forget the history books. Based on the current evidence, this has the makings of a cagey, low-scoring game. The value shout is for at least one team to fail to score. I'm backing Both Teams to Score - NO.