Preview
PajimonLook, I'm not one for fancy footnotes, but this head-to-head is telling you something, and it's not subtle. In the last five meetings between Treaty United and Cobh Ramblers, Cobh have won four. At Treaty's ground specifically, the two recent meetings produced a 1-2 loss for Treaty on 22 May 2026 and a 1-0 win on 24 October 2025. The pattern is clear: Cobh have been the team that gets the better of this fixture in recent times, and the wider head-to-head over 24 meetings going back to 2021 shows Cobh with 11 wins to Treaty's 8, though those older games are historical and I'd lean on the last 12 months.
Cobh Ramblers arrive with a decent run of form. In their last five games they've picked up 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 11 goals at a rate of 2.2 per game. Their away record over 20 games shows 8 wins, 0 draws and 12 losses, but the recent away results tell a different story - a 4-1 demolition of Bray Wanderers on 2 October and a 3-2 win at Cork City on 11 September. They did lose their last game 0-2 at home to Kerry on 9 October, but that's one bad afternoon and not a trend. Four of their last five games saw both teams score, and four went over 2.5 goals, so this is a side that plays open football.
Treaty United's form is more mixed. Three wins and two losses in their last five, but that includes a 0-4 home defeat to UCD on 2 October. Their home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses - a 40% win rate that doesn't light up the scoreboard. They did win 2-1 at home against Finn Harps on 25 September and 2-1 away at Athlone Town on 9 October, so they're not without a spark. Their home defence over 20 games has kept 5 clean sheets, which is better than Cobh's away record of 2, and that's a small point in Treaty's favour.
Now, the counter-argument for Treaty is their home record and the fact that they've won at this ground before. The 1-0 result in October 2025 shows they can grind out a home win against Cobh. Their last game was a win, so they're not coming in with a loss on the board. And the H2H at this venue is split - one win each - so it's not a one-sided story at this specific ground.
But the H2H speaks loudest here. Four of the last five meetings went to Cobh, and the scoring pattern in those games - 2-0, 1-2, 4-0, 1-0 - suggests Cobh tend to control this fixture. The market prices Cobh at 2.01, implying about 49.75% chance. My own reading of the form and the head-to-head puts Cobh's chance a touch higher, around 54%. The price at 2.01 offers value against that estimate, and I'm comfortable backing the away side.
Key Points:
- Cobh Ramblers won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, including the 1-2 result at Treaty's ground on 22 May 2026
- Cobh have scored 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, with 4 of 5 going over 2.5 goals
- Treaty United's home record over 20 games is 8W 4D 8L, with a 0-4 loss to UCD on 2 October
- Treaty won 2-1 away at Athlone Town on 9 October, their most recent game
- The market prices Cobh at 2.01 (49.75% implied); my estimate sits above that
So here's the call: I'm going with the away win for Cobh Ramblers.