AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a proper League One scrap on Sunday as AFC Wimbledon host Northampton Town. Now, if you're looking for a quiet afternoon with a cup of tea and a biscuit, this might not be it - these two have been serving up goals lately like they're going out of fashion.

Wimbledon are sitting pretty(ish) in 14th spot with 43 points from 33 games, while Northampton are down in the mire at 23rd with just 35 points from 35 games. The Dons come into this one with a bit of rest in their legs - eight days since that 2-2 thriller against Mansfield - whereas the Cobblers have been dragged through the wars. They've played three times in the last fortnight, including a midweek jaunt to Luton in the EFL Trophy where they came up short 2-1. Four days' rest versus eight? That's a big ask, especially when you're scrapping for your lives at the wrong end of the table.

Looking at the recent form, Wimbledon have been a bit Jekyll and Hyde, but they've shown they can mix it with the big boys. They put three past Bradford (who are fourth, mind you) in a cracking 3-1 win, though they did get a proper pasting off league leaders Cardiff, losing 4-1. Before that, they drew 3-3 with Barnsley in a game that had more twists than a soap opera. They're averaging 1.5 goals a game over the last ten, but shipping 1.7 at the other end - clean sheets are rarer than a sunny day in March, with just one in their last ten.

Northampton's form makes for grim reading if you're a Cobblers fan. Two wins in ten, averaging just a goal a game, and they got hammered 4-0 by second-placed Lincoln recently. They did manage a 3-1 win over Stevenage and that 2-1 victory against Wimbledon in the EFL Trophy a few weeks back - so they've got the Indian sign over the Dons in recent meetings. In fact, Northampton have won four of the last nine meetings between these two, though Wimbledon have the home advantage this time.

The head-to-head record at home doesn't make great reading for the Dons - they've only won one of four home games against Northampton. But form and fitness tell a different story here. Northampton's away record is poor (just 20% win rate), and with that fatigue factor from their packed schedule, I fancy the home side to get the job done.

Key Points:

• Wimbledon sit 14th in League One with 43 points from 33 games, while Northampton are 23rd with 35 points from 35 games

• The Dons have won three of their last ten, including an impressive 3-1 victory over fourth-placed Bradford

• Northampton have won just two of their last ten matches and were beaten 4-0 by second-placed Lincoln recently

• Wimbledon have had eight days' rest compared to Northampton's four days, with the Cobblers playing three games in the last fortnight

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in six of Wimbledon's last seven fixtures, with the Dons involved in high-scoring games like 3-3 vs Barnsley and 3-2 vs Reading

• Northampton beat Wimbledon 2-1 in the EFL Trophy on February 10th, but have a poor away record with just 20% wins on the road

Summary:

With the extra rest and home advantage, Wimbledon should have enough to see off a tired Northampton side. The 1.95 on the home win is the play here - not massive value, but solid enough given the circumstances. If you fancy a goals fest, the Over 2.5 at 2.05 is worth a nibble too, but I'm sticking with the Dons to get the three points.