Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga scrap down at the Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid are sitting pretty in 5th, but they've been drawing more than a nervous artist - 4 draws in 8 games tells its own story. Still, when they're at home, they're a different beast entirely, winning 80% of their last 5 home matches and banging in 3.2 goals per game on their own patch.

Osasuna, meanwhile, are struggling in 12th and can't buy a win on the road. Zero wins from their last 5 away games, scoring a measly 0.6 goals per trip - that's not just bad, that's proper rubbish. They did beat Getafe 2-1 recently, but that was at home where they look much more comfy.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're an Osasuna fan. Atletico have won 7 of the 9 meetings, and at home it's 4 wins from 5 against them. Last time out, Atletico stuffed them 2-0, and they've been putting five past teams like Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt at home recently.

Here's the interesting bit though - Atletico might score for fun at home (3.2 per game), but they also leak goals (1.2 per game). In fact, both teams have scored in 90% of Atletico's recent home games. Osasuna might not score many away, but they might just nick one against this leaky home defence.

The bookies have Atletico at 1.36 for the win, which seems about right given the form and history. But where's the value? Both teams to score at 2.20 catches the eye - Atletico's attack is firing, their defence is dodgy, and Osasuna might just get one on the counter.