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Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda Liga clash between Farense and Penafiel. On paper, you might think Farense have the edge sitting three places higher in the table, but dig a bit deeper and there's a right old story unfolding.
Farense have got a proper Jekyll and Hyde situation going on. Away from home, they're absolutely flying - three wins on the spin, banging in goals for fun. But back at their own gaff? It's a different story altogether. They've lost their last three home matches without scoring a single goal. Zero, zip, nada. Getting beaten 0-2 by Chaves, 0-2 by Maritimo, and 0-3 by Torreense doesn't make for pretty reading, does it?
Penafiel, on the other hand, have been grinding out results. They're not setting the world alight going forward, but defensively they've been proper solid. Five clean sheets in their last ten games tells you they know how to keep it tight at the back. They've had some decent results too - that 2-0 win at Benfica B shows they can travel and get the job done.
The head-to-head record does favour Farense historically, but form is temporary and class is permanent, as they say. Right now, Farense's home form is shocking - they've managed just one goal in their last five home games combined. That's not just bad, that's relegation-level bad.
Penafiel come into this having kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, and they've only conceded more than one goal once in their last eight away games. They're not world-beaters, but they're organised and difficult to break down.
When you look at the goal expectancy numbers (Home 0.70, Away 1.60), it's pointing towards a low-scoring affair. And given Farense can't hit a barn door at home at the moment, that makes perfect sense.
Key Points:
- Farense have failed to score in their last 3 home matches
- Penafiel have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games
- Farense's home record: 0W, 1D, 4L in last 5 home games
- Penafiel have conceded more than 1 goal in just 1 of their last 8 away matches
- Farense have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 home games combined
Given the way these two teams are playing at the moment, I'm expecting a tight, cagey affair. Farense's home goal drought combined with Penafiel's defensive solidity points towards a low-scoring game. The value looks to be on the unders here.
