Estrela vs Arouca Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this scrap at the bottom of the Primeira Liga. Estrela and Arouca are both having a right old time of it this season, sitting in 14th and 17th respectively. Neither side can buy a win at the moment, and when you dig into the numbers, it's not hard to see why.

Estrela come into this on the back of a proper hiding from Sporting CP (4-0 loss), though they did show some fight in the 1-1 draw with Nacional before that. Their only recent win was a mad 5-3 victory away at Casa Pia, which tells you everything you need to know about their defensive woes. They're shipping 2.40 goals per game on average, and even at home, they're letting in 1.25 per match. Only two clean sheets in ten games says it all, really.

Arouca, bless 'em, are in an even worse state defensively. They've just been stuffed 0-4 by SC Braga at home, and get this - they haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last ten matches. Not one! Zero, zilch, nada. They're leaking 2.60 goals per game, which is shocking stuff. The funny thing is, they actually score more away from home (1.60 per game) than they do at their own gaff (just 0.20). Weird, but there you go.

When these two have met before, it's been pretty even - two wins for Arouca, one for Estrela, and one draw. Estrela have won half their home games against Arouca, but that's from a tiny sample size.

Looking at the stats, both teams are finding the net in half their recent matches, and with defenses this porous, you'd fancy both to score again. The goal expectancy has this down as a potentially high-scoring affair too.

Key Points:

• Estrela have kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 games

• Arouca have kept ZERO clean sheets in 10 games

• Both teams concede over 2 goals per game on average

• Arouca score more away from home (1.60) than at home (0.20)

• Both teams have scored in 50% of their recent matches

This has got "both teams score" written all over it. Neither defense can be trusted, and while Estrela have home advantage, they're still far from solid at the back. Arouca might be struggling, but they do tend to have a go when they're away from home. At 1.91, both teams to score looks like the smart money here.