Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Sheffield Wednesday are propping up the entire league, and it's not pretty. Minus nine points from 19 games tells you everything you need to know. They haven't won any of their last ten, managing just four draws. At home, it's even grimmer – they're conceding an average of two goals a game. Their last outing at Hillsborough was a 2-3 defeat to Preston, and before that, a 0-3 thumping by Sheffield United. They've shown a tiny bit of fight lately with draws against Watford (1-1) and Blackburn (0-0), but finding the net is a real struggle, scoring just six times in those ten matches.

Now, let's talk Derby. They're sitting comfortably in 15th and have been on a proper little run. Six wins from their last ten is the form of a mid-table side with a bit about them. The real story is their travels – they've won three of their last four away days, scoring two goals a game on the road. They went to Swansea and won 2-1, and even stuck three past Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. They did come unstuck against a strong Middlesbrough side (2-1) recently, and had a couple of blips at home, but on the road, they've been effective.

The history books will tell you Wednesday have the hex over Derby, winning four of the last nine meetings and losing just once. The last game was a 4-2 win for the Owls. But that was nearly a year ago, and the teams are in completely different places now. That old form guide might as well be written in crayon for all the good it does Wednesday currently.

When you crunch the numbers, it's hard to look past the visitors. Wednesday have more of the ball at home (56% on average) but do very little with it, with a shot accuracy under 30%. Derby, meanwhile, are more clinical away from home, converting 39% of their shots on target. The Rams also foul a bit more on their travels, which might give Wednesday a few set-piece chances, but can you trust them to take them?

Key Points:

Sheffield Wednesday are bottom, winless in 10, and concede 2 goals per game at home.

Derby have won 6 of their last 10, and 75% of their recent away games.

Head-to-head history favours Wednesday heavily, but that's based on much older form.

Wednesday's attack is the league's weakest, averaging 0.6 goals per game.

• Derby score an average of 2.0 goals per game on their travels.

All the recent evidence points one way. While the historical record adds a slight question mark, the current trajectories are poles apart. Derby's away-day confidence should be too much for a Wednesday side desperately short of quality and points. The value in the odds for an away win looks decent to me.