NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Croatian scrap between two sides who are basically neighbours in the table. Varazdin sitting in 4th with 20 points, Lokomotiva breathing down their neck in 6th with 19 - proper six-pointer this one could be.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Varazdin have been showing some proper grit lately. They went to second-place Hajduk Split and came away with a 1-1 draw - not bad at all, that. They also beat Rijeka 1-0 at home, which shows they can turn it on when they want to. Their home form's been decent enough too, winning 3 of their last 5 on their own patch.

Lokomotiva though? Well, their away form's about as reliable as a chocolate teapot. Zero wins in their last four on the road, and they're leaking goals like a sieve away from home - two per game on average! Got absolutely stuffed 4-1 at Gorica recently, and they've been drawing with the likes of Osijek and Vukovar. Not exactly setting the world alight, are they?

These two met back in September and Lokomotiva nicked it 1-0 at home, but football's a funny old game and home advantage counts for plenty in this league. The stats tell their own story - Varazdin are banging in 1.4 goals at home while Lokomotiva are only managing 0.75 on their travels. That's a massive gulf, that is.

Both sides have been involved in their fair share of draws this season, but with Lokomotiva's away struggles and Varazdin's decent home record, I reckon the home side might just edge this one. The bookies have Varazdin at 2.25 for the win, which seems about right to me given the circumstances.

Sometimes you've got to know when to keep your wallet shut, but I think there's enough here to have a cheeky punt. Varazdin at home against a side that can't buy a win on the road? It's got my name written all over it.