Wrexham vs Swansea Prediction

Alright, Friday night under the lights in North Wales and we've got a proper Championship clash on our hands. Wrexham are flying high in the playoff spots and they'll be looking to put another three points on the board against a Swansea side that's been a bit up and down like a yo-yo lately.

Now then, let's have a butcher's at the form book. Wrexham come into this one absolutely buzzing. They've only lost twice in their last ten - and one of those was a narrow 2-0 against third-placed Millwall, which ain't no disgrace. Since then, they've been on fire. They put FIVE past Ipswich - who are fourth in the table, mind you - in a mental 5-3 thriller, then backed it up by beating the same lot 1-0 in the Cup. They even gave Chelsea a proper game at the weekend, drawing 2-2 in the FA Cup. That's top form against top opposition.

Swansea? Well, they've won six of their last ten too, but the devil's in the details, ain't it? They've been beaten 3-0 away at Ipswich - the same team Wrexham just took to the cleaners twice - and lost 2-0 at Derby. Their away record is patchy at best, winning just 40% on the road and conceding 1.4 goals per game. At home they're solid as a rock, but this ain't the Liberty Stadium, is it?

The table don't lie either. Wrexham sit pretty in sixth with 57 points, while Swansea are stuck in mid-table mediocrity down in 13th. There's a proper gap in quality here, and the recent results back that up.

Looking at the odds, the bookies have Wrexham at evens (2.00) which looks about right, but I reckon there's a bit of value there. When you consider Wrexham are banging in 1.7 goals a game at home and Swansea are shipping 1.4 away, plus the Welsh side have shown they can mix it with the best - beating Ipswich twice and drawing with Chelsea - you've got to fancy them to get the job done.

The goal expectancy sits at around 2.86 for the match, so we might see a few goals, but with Swansea's defence keeping five clean sheets in their last ten, it might be tighter than the 5-3 thriller we saw from Wrexham last month.

Key Points:

• Wrexham unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 matches (6 wins, 2 draws)

• Swansea lost 3-0 away to Ipswich recently - Wrexham beat them 5-3 and 1-0 in the same period

• Wrexham averaging 1.67 goals per game at home vs Swansea's 1.00 away

• Swansea's away win rate drops to 40% compared to 80% at home

• Wrexham sit 8 points and 7 places above Swansea in the table

Summary: Wrexham are the form side, they've got the momentum, and they're playing at home against a Swansea team that struggles on their travels. At evens, the home win looks the smart play here. Get on Wrexham to win at 2.00.